Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:01:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8c49…6ced crypto 77 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (309 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$744 (-5%) realized −$899 · open +$155
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate42%31W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$180per market
Trades / day309.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,183now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$285
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (309 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-28.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -20.7% -28.2% 42% 27% -13.3%
≤30d 73 -20.7% -28.2% 42% 27% -13.3%
≤90d 73 -20.7% -28.2% 42% 27% -13.3%
all 73 -20.7% -28.2% 42% 27% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover309.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.2% 27% -13.3%
10% ← realistic here -35.1% 10% -21.6%
15% -41.4% 3% -29.1%
20% -47.1% 3% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$50 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,183
Realized−$899
Unrealized+$155
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses31 / 42
Open positions4
Markets (closed)73 / 77
History coverage1d
Avg bet$180
Trades / day309.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Up 63¢ 100¢ $169 $266 +$97 (+58%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Up 8¢ 100¢ $14 $171 +$157 (+1156%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8AM ET Down 6¢ 4¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-45%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8AM ET Up 2¢ 96¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4456%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-97%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8AM ET Down 92¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 19 $196 +$20 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $307 +$26 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $411 +$48 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 19 $726 +$20 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 19 $421 +$44 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $408 +$45 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 19 $414 +$25 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $111 +$14 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7AM ET Jun 19 $918 +$223 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 19 $379 +$70 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 19 $174 −$174 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 19 $250 +$62 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 19 $34 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 19 $260 +$28 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 19 $52 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6AM ET Jun 19 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6AM ET Jun 19 $360 +$86 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 19 $378 +$63 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 19 $323 +$49 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $173 +$27 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $781 +$100 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 19 $367 +$75 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5AM ET Jun 19 $413 +$26 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $356 −$356 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 19 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 19 $262 −$262 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$20 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $330 +$46 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$279 +2892%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4AM ET Jun 19 $398 −$368 -92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $131 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $197 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $296 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $229 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $159 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $245 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $20 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $441 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $8 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $277 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $79 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $8 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $9 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $14 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $204 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $30 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $10 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $103 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $162 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $19 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $178 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $153 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $421 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $322 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $27 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $13 23m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,183.09 · official $1,182.64 (match) · 388 history records