Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T03:56:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8C
0x8c49…cff1
other · 76 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
−$15 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$17 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$18
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses19 / 56
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)75 / 76
History coverage601d
Avg bet$273
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%
Chart Positions 1 History 75 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $20 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $18 $0 -0%
Will BIG win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 06 $19 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $19 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $150 in May? Jun 01 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? Jun 01 $73 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? Jun 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $12 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $13 $0 -0%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels May 22 $6 +$6 +97%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $11 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi May 18 $89 $0 -0%
Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets May 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $201 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 08 $103 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $109 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $109 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 6? May 06 $38 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 03 $109 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $100 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 02 $110 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 02 $99 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $99 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $108 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $108 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $105 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 25 $104 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $219 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $101 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 24 $103 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $105 $0 -0%
2026 Balance of Power: Other Apr 23 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 16 $101 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $111 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $212 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 14 $103 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 14 $101 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $104 $0 -0%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $9 +$4 +48%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $9 +$7 +79%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 08 $4 +$6 +146%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $12 +$6 +52%
Hawks vs. Magic Apr 02 $14 −$14 -100%
Blues vs. Sharks Apr 02 $30 −$30 -100%
Stars vs. Flyers Mar 30 $22 +$30 +138%
Golden Knights vs. Jets Mar 27 $23 −$23 -100%
Hawks vs. Pistons Mar 27 $31 −$31 -100%
Lehigh Mountain Hawks vs. Prairie View A&M Panthers Mar 25 $22 +$33 +149%
Panthers vs. Canucks Mar 25 $34 +$45 +133%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
economics 68% −$14
politics 14% −$5
other 12% −$9
sports 3% +$11
crypto 2% +$1
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $18 1h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $20 43h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 2d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $18 6d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $18 7d
Will BIG win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 99¢ $19 7d
Will BIG win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 7d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $19 8d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $19 8d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $12 17d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $12 17d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? BUY No 100¢ $7 18d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $13 22d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $13 22d
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Athletics 50¢ $6 23d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $11 24d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $11 24d
Will Solana reach $150 in May? BUY No 100¢ $22 25d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $73 25d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $88 26d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $89 26d
Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets BUY Detroit Tigers 40¢ $7 30d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $95 33d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $95 33d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 32¢ $6 34d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $102 36d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $103 36d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $109 37d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $109 37d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $109 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 13 -0.3% -9.8% 31% 8% -9.9%
≤90d 53 +1.3% -8.4% 25% 17% -10.2%
all 75 +1.5% -8.1% 25% 15% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 15% -9.6%
10% -16.9% 13% -18.2%
15% -25.0% 12% -26.1%
20% -32.3% 9% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.23 · official $18.23 (match) · 300 history records