Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:22:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8c4f…2733 crypto 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate56%14W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day29.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -12.5% -20.8% 56% 48% -17.1%
≤30d 25 -12.5% -20.8% 56% 48% -17.1%
≤90d 25 -12.5% -20.8% 56% 48% -17.1%
all 25 -12.5% -20.8% 56% 48% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.8% 48% -17.1%
10% ← realistic here -28.4% 44% -25.0%
15% -35.3% 32% -32.3%
20% -41.7% 24% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -50% → late +23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$13 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses14 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage1d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day29.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 25 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$28 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 25 $25 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 25 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 25 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 25 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 25 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$2 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $101 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.30 · official $85.30 (match) · 40 history records