Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:21:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8c51…4841 weather 205 markets active 0h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$760 (-8%) realized −$758 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate46%92W / 107L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$55
7 days−$61
14 days−$61
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 72% −$769
crypto 27% +$3
world 0% −$14
sports 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-28.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 -20.1% -27.7% 38% 31% -12.3%
≤30d 102 -17.1% -25.0% 39% 30% -10.9%
≤90d 199 -21.1% -28.6% 46% 24% -16.7%
all 199 -21.1% -28.6% 46% 24% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.6% 24% -16.7%
10% -35.4% 21% -24.7%
15% -41.7% 16% -31.9%
20% -47.4% 16% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$17 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$758
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses92 / 107
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)199 / 205
History coverage80d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 199 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 18? No 96¢ 97¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? No 83¢ 86¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 18? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? No 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 93 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $72 +$48 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$6 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $22 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $18 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$7 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $2 +$3 +152%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 +$8 +567%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $18 +$32 +176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $68 +$52 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$8 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $41 +$19 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $113 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$19 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$20 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $34 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $29 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $32 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $78 +$43 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $110 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $97 +$3 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 10m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 83¢ $17 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 9¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 96¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.84 · official $36.84 (match) · 1035 history records