Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T14:45:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8C
0x8c52…cdf1
other · 46 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$42 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$44 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$141
Realized−$44
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses6 / 29
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions11
Markets (closed)35 / 46
History coverage3d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day17.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%
Chart Positions 11 History 35 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$109
7 days−$44
14 days−$44
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Under 54¢ 55¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+11%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Morocco? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 0 Switzerland? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 Over 18¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $6 +$24 +388%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $10 +$54 +550%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 +$37 +73%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $41 +$57 +140%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $12 −$12 -97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $12 −$12 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 0 Switzerland? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 +$61 +596%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $57 −$56 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 12 $14 −$14 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $28 −$28 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $29 +$41 +146%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 49% −$85
sports 48% +$40
crypto 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $12 21h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 18¢ $12 21h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 20¢ $6 22h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $30 24h
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 24h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 24h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $51 24h
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 24h
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 24h
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 24h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 24h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 24h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 24h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 24h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 24h
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 24h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 24h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 24h
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 0 Switzerland? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-35.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -28.8% -35.6% 17% 17% -18.1%
≤30d 35 -28.8% -35.6% 17% 17% -18.1%
≤90d 35 -28.8% -35.6% 17% 17% -18.1%
all 35 -28.8% -35.6% 17% 17% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover17.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.6% 17% -18.1%
10% -41.7% 17% -25.9%
15% -47.3% 17% -33.1%
20% -52.5% 17% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $141.09 · official $141.09 (match) · 61 history records