Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:49:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8C
0x8c57…768e
sports · 189 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$17 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$22 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$11
Realized−$22
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses61 / 124
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions4
Markets (closed)185 / 189
History coverage68d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 4 History 185 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$17
14 days+$16
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 52¢ 52¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 29¢ 26¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-12%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $1 $0 -12%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $5 $0 -6%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $3 +$3 +134%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$1 -46%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 $0 -5%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$1 -40%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Taylah Preston Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $3 +$7 +226%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -92%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $3 −$1 -44%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $6 $0 -1%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $5 +$2 +34%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $3 +$1 +23%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $3 $0 -8%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 $0 -4%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 $0 -1%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $7 +$5 +78%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 13 $3 −$1 -40%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $3 +$3 +82%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 $0 -35%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$2 -55%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $3 −$1 -36%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 $0 +3%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 $0 -14%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $3 −$1 -51%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $3 +$1 +21%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $6 −$2 -34%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 12 $3 $0 +0%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $3 −$1 -24%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5) Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 $0 -10%
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini Jun 11 $3 +$1 +43%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $2 +$4 +203%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $3 +$1 +27%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $3 −$1 -35%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $3 +$6 +216%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $3 −$3 -81%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $3 $0 -5%
Libema Open: Thijs Boogaard vs Yibing Wu Jun 10 $1 +$4 +354%
Cattolica: Max Hans Rehberg vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $1 +$4 +317%
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Birmingham: Mary Stoiana vs Lulu Sun Jun 02 $1 +$5 +376%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 25-31? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 43% −$8
crypto 31% −$27
other 23% +$3
world 1% +$2
politics 2% +$1
finance 0% −$1
tech 0% +$3
culture 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 27¢ $0 7m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 8m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL Cincinnati Reds 12¢ $1 43m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 13¢ $1 43m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics SELL Colorado Rockies 29¢ $2 53m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 52¢ $3 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 44¢ $3 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics SELL Colorado Rockies 43¢ $3 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 29¢ $2 1h
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti SELL Lucia Bronzetti 55¢ $6 1h
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Lucia Bronzetti 23¢ $3 2h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner SELL RED Canids 10¢ $1 2h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner BUY RED Canids 18¢ $2 2h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 53¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 19¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 30¢ $2 4h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Taylah Preston SELL Antonia Ruzic 32¢ $2 5h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Taylah Preston BUY Antonia Ruzic 31¢ $2 6h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Top Esports 20¢ $2 12h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 30¢ $3 13h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 4¢ $0 13h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 4¢ $0 13h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 4¢ $0 13h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 32¢ $2 14h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 33¢ $3 14h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 29¢ $3 15h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 18¢ $2 16h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 28¢ $3 17h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 48¢ $3 17h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Los Angeles Angels 63¢ $4 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +15.8% +4.7% 39% 30% +2.2%
≤30d 105 +4.2% -5.7% 30% 27% -5.3%
≤90d 185 +4.2% -5.8% 33% 27% -12.3%
all 185 +4.2% -5.8% 33% 27% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 27% -12.3%
10% -14.8% 25% -20.7%
15% -23.0% 23% -28.4%
20% -30.6% 21% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.11 · official $11.11 (match) · 527 history records