Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:18:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8C
0x8c57…f939
world · 283 markets active 3h ago
2.0score
+$54,442 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$46,724 · open +$7,898
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$114,258
Realized+$46,724
Unrealized+$7,898
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses161 / 67
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Est. fees paid−$426
Open positions55
Markets (closed)228 / 283
Avg bet$2,762
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 55 History 228 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,507
7 days−$21,927
14 days+$5,253
30 days+$10,437
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 88¢ 98¢ $12,002 $13,255 +$1,253 (+10%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 88¢ 84¢ $12,518 $12,054 −$464 (-4%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 83¢ 88¢ $5,602 $5,906 +$304 (+5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 97¢ 99¢ $5,000 $5,122 +$122 (+2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 89¢ $5,000 $4,986 −$14 (-0%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? No 80¢ 96¢ $4,001 $4,846 +$845 (+21%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 78¢ 88¢ $4,154 $4,663 +$509 (+12%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 50¢ 44¢ $5,000 $4,450 −$550 (-11%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? No 51¢ 92¢ $2,357 $4,303 +$1,946 (+83%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 30¢ 40¢ $2,871 $3,873 +$1,002 (+35%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? No 84¢ 94¢ $3,020 $3,412 +$392 (+13%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? No 85¢ 98¢ $2,964 $3,408 +$444 (+15%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? No 93¢ 99¢ $3,020 $3,231 +$211 (+7%)
Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel in US custody by June 30? No 95¢ 98¢ $3,000 $3,103 +$103 (+3%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No 72¢ 74¢ $2,760 $2,820 +$60 (+2%)
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? No 87¢ 91¢ $2,500 $2,629 +$129 (+5%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 28¢ 70¢ $1,001 $2,554 +$1,553 (+155%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 69¢ 88¢ $1,801 $2,308 +$507 (+28%)
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No 80¢ 81¢ $2,250 $2,279 +$29 (+1%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? No 80¢ 84¢ $2,000 $2,112 +$112 (+6%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? No 92¢ 95¢ $2,001 $2,064 +$63 (+3%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $2,000 $1,914 −$86 (-4%)
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 74¢ 84¢ $1,651 $1,859 +$208 (+13%)
US federally charges Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel? No 74¢ 94¢ $1,385 $1,766 +$381 (+28%)
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes 82¢ 99¢ $1,450 $1,756 +$306 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $2,621 +$576 +22%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 10 $6,325 +$2,572 +41%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 10 $2,280 +$1,075 +47%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $1,901 −$873 -46%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $250 +$156 +62%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $4,039 −$4,039 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $6,066 +$2,163 +36%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 09 $1,290 −$1,290 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 09 $2,760 −$2,760 -100%
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An Jun 09 $252 +$76 +30%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $750 +$292 +39%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $2,500 −$1,154 -46%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $5,000 +$28 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $8,903 −$8,903 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $6,326 +$1,357 +22%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $8,654 −$8,654 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 07 $3,600 −$2,550 -71%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $5,036 −$2,053 -41%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? Jun 02 $9,704 +$811 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $15,001 +$1,797 +12%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $28,302 +$24,479 +86%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $5,010 +$2,883 +58%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31? Jun 01 $90 +$11 +12%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? Jun 01 $32 −$32 -100%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? Jun 01 $100 +$3 +3%
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? Jun 01 $182 +$57 +31%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $2,800 +$331 +12%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $203 +$114 +56%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? Jun 01 $1,001 +$98 +10%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $1,001 +$129 +13%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,125 +$375 +33%
Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,556 +$211 +14%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,521 +$314 +21%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? Jun 01 $5,000 +$675 +14%
Kash Patel out by May 31? Jun 01 $14,061 +$1,703 +12%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $20,003 +$1,453 +7%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $405 +$201 +50%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 31 $1,551 +$142 +9%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 30 $2,502 −$2,502 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? May 30 $7,500 −$7,500 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $7,938 +$3,651 +46%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $2,001 −$995 -50%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by May 31? May 30 $10,008 +$170 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 29 $2,035 +$656 +32%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 28 $601 −$547 -91%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 26 $9,000 +$783 +9%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 25 $300 −$134 -44%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? May 23 $3,500 +$146 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 22, 2026? May 23 $7,500 +$151 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $10,500 +$491 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 65% +$22,409
other 16% −$4,899
politics 8% +$8,238
sports 5% +$3,241
crypto 4% +$23,535
finance 2% +$1,987
tech 0% +$361
culture 0% −$250
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 15¢ $54 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 15¢ $19 6h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 7h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 8h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 16¢ $603 12h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 16¢ $29 12h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 16¢ $54 12h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 13h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 16¢ $104 13h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 13h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? BUY Yes 15¢ $154 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? BUY Yes 15¢ $28 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? BUY Yes 15¢ $28 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? BUY Yes 15¢ $225 15h
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? BUY No 80¢ $2,268 16h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $1,500 19h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 82¢ $450 19h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 82¢ $1,000 19h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? BUY No 94¢ $2,000 19h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $5,016 20h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $15 22h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $503 23h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $501 26h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $870 32h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $1,001 33h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? BUY No 90¢ $900 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -21.4% -28.9% 53% 47% -40.8%
≤30d 66 -6.4% -15.3% 73% 50% -6.8%
≤90d 155 -3.1% -12.3% 72% 55% -4.5%
all 228 +0.9% -8.7% 71% 57% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.7% 57% -3.3%
10% ← realistic here -17.5% 37% -12.5%
15% -25.4% 25% -21.0%
20% -32.7% 18% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114,257.80 · official $114,258.03 (match) · 1906 history records