Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:14:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8c58…e2a4 crypto 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$46 (-2%) realized +$106 · open −$152
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%11W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 109d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$147
sports 11% −$152
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +7.1% -3.1% 33% 33% -14.9%
≤30d 15 +7.1% -3.1% 33% 33% -14.9%
≤90d 15 +7.1% -3.1% 33% 33% -14.9%
all 29 -2.7% -11.9% 38% 38% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 38% -16.5%
10% -20.4% 34% -24.5%
15% -28.0% 34% -31.8%
20% -35.1% 31% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$51 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized+$106
Unrealized−$152
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses11 / 18
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage109d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 Over 32¢ 10¢ $226 $74 −$152 (-67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6PM ET Jun 21 $21 −$5 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 21 $510 −$510 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 21 $73 −$73 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 21 $365 +$142 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 21 $106 +$335 +315%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 21 $172 −$7 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 21 $69 +$65 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 21 $147 −$71 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 21 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 21 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 21 $47 +$61 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$96 +305%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 21 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Mar 17 $36 −$35 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Mar 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Mar 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Mar 17 $30 +$25 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Mar 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Mar 04 $7 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Mar 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Mar 04 $16 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Mar 04 $24 +$23 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Mar 04 $15 +$18 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Mar 04 $10 +$9 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Mar 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Mar 04 $3 +$4 +133%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $231 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $16 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $16 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $3 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $117 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $180 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $105 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $105 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $136 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $265 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $365 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $214 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $227 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $121 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $130 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $70 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $64 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $69 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $76 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $139 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.18 · official $74.18 (match) · 94 history records