Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:49:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
8C 0x8c58…e330 sports 1332 markets active 8h ago coverage 105d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 104d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$11,711 (+3%) realized +$11,711 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate53%711W / 621L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$257per market
Trades / day21.7pace
Fees−$3,838est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 105d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$4,308
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 176 +16.0% +5.0% 57% 57% -21.0%
≤30d 537 +9.4% -1.0% 52% 51% -20.2%
≤90d 1282 +9.2% -1.2% 52% 51% -11.2%
all 1332 +9.9% -0.5% 53% 52% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.5% 52% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -10.0% 48% -19.2%
15% -18.7% 37% -27.0%
20% -26.7% 29% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +12% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$159 vs −$189 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$11,711
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses711 / 621
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$3,838
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1332 / 1332
History coverage105d ⚠
Avg bet$257
Trades / day21.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1332 Trades
no open positions (328 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $27 +$13 +46%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 16 $3 +$1 +55%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5) Jun 16 $11 −$11 -98%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5) Jun 16 $456 +$131 +29%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $288 +$73 +25%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 11.5 Jun 16 $5 +$5 +83%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $20 +$10 +50%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 11.5 Jun 16 $31 −$31 -98%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-4.5) Jun 16 $28 −$28 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $242 −$12 -5%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5 Jun 16 $3 +$2 +46%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5) Jun 16 $3 +$17 +550%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $9 −$4 -42%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 Jun 15 $108 −$60 -55%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) Jun 15 $233 −$193 -83%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5) Jun 15 $128 −$123 -96%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 15 $39 +$7 +17%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 15 $29 +$3 +11%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $2,039 −$580 -28%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $424 +$369 +87%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $201 +$106 +53%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $4 +$1 +40%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5 Jun 15 $926 −$912 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 15 $217 +$81 +37%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $90 +$16 +18%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $1,048 −$1,033 -99%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5) Jun 15 $164 −$161 -98%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 15 $68 −$63 -93%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5) Jun 15 $50 +$47 +94%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $8 +$12 +158%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 11.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5) Jun 14 $4 +$1 +26%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-4.5) Jun 14 $6 +$1 +24%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5) Jun 14 $2 +$3 +101%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 12.5 Jun 14 $7 −$6 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $256 −$252 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $30 −$29 -99%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) Jun 14 $33 +$7 +23%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $881 +$1,098 +125%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 14 $472 +$126 +27%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $38 +$8 +21%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) Jun 14 $235 −$231 -98%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5) Jun 14 $225 −$221 -98%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5) Jun 14 $216 −$212 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 24¢ $1 8h
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 11¢ $8 8h
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 64¢ $3 9h
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 33¢ $2 9h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 20¢ $31 9h
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-4.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 18¢ $28 9h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 40¢ $4 9h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 68¢ $27 9h
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5) BUY Detroit Tigers 77¢ $456 9h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 79¢ $100 9h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 42¢ $15 9h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 80¢ $165 10h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 76¢ $2 10h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 66¢ $3 10h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 75¢ $21 10h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 66¢ $20 10h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 42¢ $2 10h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 26¢ $82 11h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 15¢ $6 11h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 27¢ $6 11h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 52¢ $95 11h
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5) BUY Washington Nationals 15¢ $3 11h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 39¢ $20 11h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 68¢ $3 11h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 21¢ $40 12h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 32¢ $6 12h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 53¢ $3 12h
Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5) BUY Texas Rangers 21¢ $2 33h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 13¢ $48 34h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 13¢ $145 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.80 · official $0.00 · 3500 history records