Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T12:56:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8C
0x8c59…bb5c
sports · 1018 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$110 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$96 · open +$15
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$202
Realized+$96
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses512 / 481
Est. fees paid−$70
Open positions28
Markets (closed)993 / 1018
History coverage43d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day53.0
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 28 History 993 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$63
14 days−$92
30 days+$93
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 49¢ 81¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+65%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Hanwha Life Esports 37¢ 100¢ $5 $14 +$9 (+170%)
Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2026? Yes 24¢ 32¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+29%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 37¢ 81¢ $5 $11 +$6 (+120%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Yes 39¢ 80¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+106%)
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? No 62¢ 100¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+61%)
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 53¢ 58¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 62¢ 62¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Set Handicap: Berrettini (-2.5) vs Arnaldi (+2.5) Berrettini 50¢ 50¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 59¢ 58¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Berrettini vs. Arnaldi: Match O/U 38.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Set Handicap: Berrettini (-1.5) vs Arnaldi (+1.5) Arnaldi 51¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Matteo Berrettini vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Over 3.5 51¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Matteo Berrettini vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 4.5 Over 4.5 51¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Berrettini vs. Arnaldi: Match O/U 40.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 86¢ 85¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 14¢ 14¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 64¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 78¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 30¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 22¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 +$3 +51%
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 11 $5 −$1 -12%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 08 $5 +$11 +213%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $5 +$1 +26%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 07 $5 +$5 +103%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 06 $5 +$3 +60%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 06 $5 $0 -6%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $5 $0 -6%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 06 $5 +$4 +81%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 06 $5 +$4 +81%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 06 $5 −$2 -45%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $5 +$10 +194%
Spread: Knicks (-10.5) Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $5 +$6 +107%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $5 $0 -3%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 05 $5 $0 -8%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $5 +$7 +137%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 05 $5 +$4 +78%
Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 4.5 Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $5 +$1 +10%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5) Jun 05 $5 +$3 +58%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $5 +$5 +91%
Map Handicap: FLY (-1.5) vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (+1.5) Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 05 $5 +$5 +90%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 05 $5 +$5 +99%
De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 05 $5 +$6 +114%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 87% +$120
other 13% −$12
world 0% −$2
weather 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 37¢ $5 1h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL No 65¢ $0 1h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 65¢ $5 4h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL No 65¢ $2 4h
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $0 19h
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $0 21h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 64¢ $5 24h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 29¢ $5 24h
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $0 31h
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $0 32h
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $0 32h
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $0 45h
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 65¢ $1 2d
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $0 3d
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 3d
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 15¢ $0 4d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 30¢ $5 4d
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 4d
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 22¢ $5 4d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Angels 31¢ $5 4d
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 15¢ $0 4d
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 15¢ $0 4d
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 15¢ $0 4d
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 15¢ $0 4d
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 15¢ $0 4d
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 15¢ $0 4d
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 15¢ $0 4d
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 15¢ $0 4d
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 15¢ $0 4d
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 15¢ $0 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -18.9% -26.6% 36% 34% -28.7%
≤30d 584 +3.4% -6.5% 51% 50% -6.8%
≤90d 993 +1.7% -7.9% 52% 51% -7.9%
all 993 +1.7% -7.9% 52% 51% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover53.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.9% 51% -7.9%
10% ← realistic here -16.8% 47% -16.7%
15% -24.8% 42% -24.8%
20% -32.2% 34% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $201.76 · official $201.77 (match) · 3500 history records