Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:05:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8c5c…a7c1 world 105 markets active 1h ago coverage 308d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$64 (-1%) realized −$63 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate36%36W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$3
30 days−$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$70
other 27% −$4
politics 19% +$1
sports 12% +$1
economics 1% $0
finance 1% +$2
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)+7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.5% -9.1% 20% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 28 -0.6% -10.1% 39% 4% -11.3%
≤90d 69 +26.7% +14.6% 41% 4% -10.2%
all 99 +18.6% +7.3% 36% 3% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.3% 3% -10.1%
10% -3.0% 2% -18.7%
15% -12.4% 2% -26.6%
20% -21.0% 2% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

308d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized−$63
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses36 / 63
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions6
Markets (closed)99 / 105
History coverage308d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 89¢ $90 $89 −$1 (-1%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 95¢ 90¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-5%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 45¢ 54¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+19%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 31¢ 54¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+72%)
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $89 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $103 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $94 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $87 +$2 +3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $96 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $87 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $86 +$2 +2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $86 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $127 −$1 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $182 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $86 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $95 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $329 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $430 −$60 -14%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $183 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 01 $106 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $97 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $171 +$9 +5%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 29 $95 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 29 $175 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $71 +$13 +18%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $90 +$2 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $195 −$36 -18%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $152 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $36 −$7 -21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 20 $105 +$8 +7%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $390 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 17 $150 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $279 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $173 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $2 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $163 −$1 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $9 $0 +4%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $189 +$1 +1%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $620 −$4 -1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $3 $0 -5%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $503 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $591 +$1 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $308 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $161 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $181 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $330 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $84 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 14 $301 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $161 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 13 $166 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $220 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $90 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $60 6h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $29 6h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $89 9h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $98 12h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $98 13h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $6 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 78¢ $90 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 76¢ $87 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $31 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $56 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $87 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $46 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $51 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $96 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 7d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $87 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.32 · official $88.60 · 447 history records