Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:26:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8C
0x8c5d…1c8d
crypto · 1143 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$886 -12%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$887 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$134
Realized−$887
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses440 / 603
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions98
Markets (closed)1043 / 1143
History coverage53d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day44.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 98 History 1043 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$71
7 days−$124
14 days−$207
30 days−$435
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 35¢ 48¢ $17 $24 +$7 (+39%)
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? Yes 64¢ 86¢ $11 $15 +$4 (+35%)
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 42¢ 29¢ $21 $14 −$6 (-30%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $8 $8 +$1 (+7%)
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 49¢ 63¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+30%)
CD Ñublense to score first vs. CD Huachipato? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be between 1% and 1.5%? Yes 33¢ 43¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+30%)
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 43¢ 32¢ $6 $4 −$1 (-26%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? Yes 60¢ 70¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+17%)
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be below 1%? Yes 12¢ 34¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+187%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? Yes 22¢ 56¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+157%)
CD Huachipato to score first vs. CD Ñublense? Yes 37¢ 22¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-41%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 13? Yes 22¢ 40¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+84%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at $60-$70 in June? Yes 42¢ 37¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-13%)
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June? Yes 24¢ 36¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+52%)
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? Yes 26¢ 10¢ $4 $2 −$3 (-63%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Yes 30¢ 32¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? Yes 37¢ 30¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June? Yes 20¢ 26¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+35%)
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be between 1.5% and 2%? Yes 30¢ 13¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-56%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? Yes 31¢ 24¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? Yes 37¢ 24¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-36%)
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 43.0 and 45.9 in June? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 98-99°F on Ju Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 81°F or below on June Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 87°F or below on June 11? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 106°F or higher on June 11? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 100°F or higher on Ju Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on June 11 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on June 11 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 11? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on June 11 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 96% −$880
other 1% −$3
tech 1% $0
world 1% $0
weather 1% +$2
sports 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Up 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 19¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 314 -16.2% -24.1% 43% 27% -18.5%
≤30d 764 -13.5% -21.7% 45% 30% -18.6%
≤90d 1043 -14.0% -22.2% 42% 31% -20.5%
all 1043 -14.0% -22.2% 42% 31% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover44.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.2% 31% -20.5%
10% ← realistic here -29.6% 26% -28.1%
15% -36.4% 20% -35.0%
20% -42.7% 15% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $133.91 · official $133.78 (match) · 3500 history records