Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:53:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8c5f…31a1 other 260 markets active 2h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$83 (-0%) realized −$83 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%14W / 246L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$221per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$17
14 days−$25
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$42
sports 25% −$24
politics 9% −$8
culture 7% −$7
economics 5% −$6
crypto 4% −$4
world 3% −$2
tech 2% −$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 73 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 182 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 260 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 62% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses14 / 246
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)260 / 260
History coverage140d
Avg bet$221
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 260 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $197 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $342 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 18 $351 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $384 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $231 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $274 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $326 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $166 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $121 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $376 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $253 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $139 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $245 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $521 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $160 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $494 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $338 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $396 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $506 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $352 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $538 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 14 $203 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 14 $358 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $161 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $323 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $522 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $390 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $121 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $622 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $189 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $646 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $133 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $678 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $643 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $436 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $324 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $274 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $307 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $61 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $690 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $361 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $63 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $301 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $199 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $619 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $556 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $397 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $469 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $288 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $55 1h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $55 2h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $55 17h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $55 19h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $55 23h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $55 25h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $55 26h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $55 27h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $56 29h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $56 31h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $56 32h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $56 34h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $56 35h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $56 37h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $56 38h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $56 39h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $56 41h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $56 43h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $56 45h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $56 47h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $56 2d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $56 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $56 2d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 2d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $50 2d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $51 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1447 history records