Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:29:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8c60…c9be sports 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$6 (-5%) realized +$1 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate62%8W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 38% −$6
world 28% −$4
other 20% +$9
tech 10% −$2
politics 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -4.9% -14.0% 62% 54% -8.1%
≤30d 13 -4.9% -14.0% 62% 54% -8.1%
≤90d 13 -4.9% -14.0% 62% 54% -8.1%
all 13 -4.9% -14.0% 62% 54% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 54% -8.1%
10% -22.2% 31% -16.9%
15% -29.7% 15% -24.9%
20% -36.6% 8% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized+$1
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses8 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)13 / 17
History coverage3d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Ciryl Gane 50¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 74¢ 94¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+28%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 1¢ 1¢ $12 $6 −$6 (-49%)
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Aiemann Zahabi 23¢ 22¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 +$1 +26%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $5 +$1 +21%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 +$2 +36%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? Jun 14 $4 $0 -8%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $11 +$4 +34%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $5 −$1 -18%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $9 $0 +2%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $10 +$2 +16%
SpaceX IPO: Trading Halted for Volatility? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 0¢ $3 8m
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 23¢ $4 17m
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Josh Hokit 100¢ $6 21m
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 79¢ $5 53m
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai SELL Mauricio Ruffy 99¢ $6 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 74¢ $5 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Bo Nickal 100¢ $6 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 81¢ $5 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 41¢ $10 2h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 42¢ $5 11h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $6 11h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 73¢ $5 11h
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $4 11h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 38¢ $4 16h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $10 16h
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $4 24h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 63¢ $4 24h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 74¢ $11 25h
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $10 41h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 77¢ $5 41h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $5 41h
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $9 2d
SpaceX IPO: Trading Halted for Volatility? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Ciryl Gane 50¢ $5 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 2d
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June BUY No 86¢ $10 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 51¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.13 · official $24.85 · 31 history records