Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:26:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
8C 0x8c66…eb73 other 143 markets active 1h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$325 (+6%) realized +$325 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate56%79W / 62L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$58
7 days−$157
14 days−$197
30 days−$179
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% +$367
crypto 12% −$188
politics 7% +$143
sports 5% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -11.1% -19.6% 43% 33% -31.5%
≤30d 34 -8.9% -17.5% 47% 35% -26.0%
≤90d 91 -4.7% -13.8% 56% 45% -4.2%
all 141 -2.1% -11.4% 56% 45% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 45% -4.6%
10% -19.9% 38% -13.7%
15% -27.6% 30% -22.1%
20% -34.7% 21% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$18 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized+$325
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses79 / 62
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)141 / 143
History coverage115d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $45 +$4 +9%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $25 $0 -2%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $61 −$27 -45%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $38 +$5 +12%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $31 +$19 +62%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$7 +32%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $28 −$5 -16%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$25 -49%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $26 −$9 -33%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$14 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $27 +$19 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $75 −$42 -57%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$6 +42%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$3 -29%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $65 −$59 -90%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$4 +87%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -16%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $65 +$4 +6%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $18 $0 -1%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$10 -48%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$9 +44%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $175 +$17 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 24 $5 +$2 +33%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $15 +$3 +20%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $4 +$7 +165%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw? May 24 $4 +$4 +105%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $15 −$11 -75%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $38 +$14 +36%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $73 +$8 +12%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $7 +$1 +10%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? May 13 $85 +$13 +15%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $86 +$2 +2%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $15 +$10 +64%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $5 +$3 +50%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $55 +$21 +37%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $5 +$2 +46%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $15 −$10 -65%
Will Levante UD vs. CA Osasuna end in a draw? May 08 $29 −$28 -95%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $15 −$9 -60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $17 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $38 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $30 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $16 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 69¢ $16 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $16 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 89¢ $11 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $45 13h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $15 20h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $28 20h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 87¢ $25 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 38¢ $33 20h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 88¢ $25 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $61 25h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $15 41h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $38 45h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $51 45h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $11 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $20 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 54¢ $20 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $9 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 37¢ $4 3d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY No 29¢ $26 3d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 71¢ $24 3d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $25 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 36¢ $15 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $4 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.44 · official $62.44 (match) · 373 history records