Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:23:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8c67…fab2 crypto 285 markets active 14d ago coverage 7d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (256 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,178 (+5%) realized +$4,178 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate60%171W / 114L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$326per market
Trades / day256.1pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$268
30 days+$2,521
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$1,905
sports 1% +$850
other 0% −$233
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (256 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 285 +5.2% -4.8% 60% 50% -7.1%
≤90d 285 +5.2% -4.8% 60% 50% -7.1%
all 285 +5.2% -4.8% 60% 50% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover256.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.8% 50% -7.1%
10% ← realistic here -13.9% 42% -16.0%
15% -22.3% 35% -24.1%
20% -29.9% 24% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$119 vs −$157 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4,178
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses171 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)285 / 285
History coverage7d
Avg bet$326
Trades / day256.1
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 285 Trades
no open positions (66 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $591 +$9 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $105 −$102 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $144 +$56 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $131 +$69 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $289 −$283 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $164 +$36 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET Jun 15 $64 +$136 +210%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $149 −$147 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $179 +$21 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $961 −$161 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $835 +$165 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $196 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $271 −$71 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $125 +$75 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $400 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $902 −$302 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $955 −$155 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $267 −$67 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $538 +$262 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $208 +$192 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $576 +$224 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9AM ET Jun 14 $99 −$95 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $130 +$70 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $438 −$424 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $253 +$147 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $119 +$81 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $475 +$125 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $137 +$63 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $255 +$145 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $277 +$123 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $1,060 −$260 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $188 −$181 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $290 +$110 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $333 +$67 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $863 +$337 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $581 +$219 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $649 +$351 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $944 +$456 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $680 −$80 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $104 +$96 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $39 +$161 +417%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $196 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $119 +$81 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $1,781 −$581 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $46 −$44 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $755 −$355 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $1,140 +$460 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $1,013 −$966 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $198 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $194 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $198 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $105 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $46 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $97 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $131 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $161 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $128 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $164 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $149 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $64 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $179 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $65 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $133 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $181 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $127 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $131 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $164 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $160 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $181 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $136 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $174 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $174 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $171 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $196 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $198 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $73 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $125 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $42 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2062 history records