Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:29:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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8C 0x8c68…219f sports 410 markets active 1h ago coverage 205d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,969 (-6%) realized −$6,000 · open +$31
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate60%229W / 155L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$246per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$826now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$22
30 days−$359
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$6,102
politics 1% +$123
other 0% +$1
finance 0% $0
world 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 +99.8% +80.8% 33% 33% -37.1%
≤90d 26 +12.4% +1.7% 62% 15% -39.2%
all 384 -0.6% -10.1% 60% 39% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 39% -15.0%
10% -18.7% 23% -23.1%
15% -26.6% 8% -30.5%
20% -33.8% 3% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$107 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

205d coverage
Net worth$826
Realized−$6,000
Unrealized+$31
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses229 / 155
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions26
Markets (closed)384 / 410
History coverage205d
Avg bet$246
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 384 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No 83¢ 82¢ $254 $253 −$1 (-0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $99 $99 +$0 (+0%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,200 in June? No 97¢ 100¢ $48 $50 +$1 (+3%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 60¢ 99¢ $30 $49 +$19 (+65%)
JD Vance out as VP by December 31? No 93¢ 92¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-1%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 57¢ 100¢ $11 $20 +$9 (+75%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 35¢ 36¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+4%)
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by July 31? No 98¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30? No 95¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? No 99¢ 97¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Dogecoin reach $0.44 by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Will UNI reach $9.50 by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 89¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will UNI reach $8.00 by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 86¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Will Aster reach $1.40 by December 31, 2026? No 79¢ 80¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
World Cup: Fastest Goal Record Broken? No 97¢ 97¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes 46¢ 48¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will XRP reach $2.80 by December 31, 2026? No 89¢ 88¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $22 −$22 -98%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 09 $10 +$40 +376%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 09 $10 +$40 +376%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $849 −$406 -48%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele May 28 $164 −$5 -3%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? May 28 $125 −$6 -5%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 17 $497 +$48 +10%
Wizards vs. Cavaliers Apr 11 $54 +$6 +12%
Suns vs. Lakers Apr 10 $136 −$136 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Nuggets Apr 09 $97 +$3 +4%
Thunder vs. Lakers Apr 08 $270 +$27 +10%
Warriors vs. Timberwolves Apr 07 $5 −$3 -69%
Spurs vs. Nuggets Apr 06 $1,211 −$1,211 -100%
Jazz vs. Thunder Apr 06 $95 +$5 +5%
Pistons vs. 76ers Apr 05 $193 +$7 +4%
Bulls vs. Knicks Apr 04 $90 +$10 +11%
Hawks vs. Nets Apr 04 $46 +$4 +9%
Pacers vs. Hornets Apr 04 $91 +$9 +10%
Kings vs. Hawks Mar 29 $281 +$19 +7%
Jazz vs. Suns Mar 29 $91 +$9 +10%
Nets vs. Lakers Mar 28 $94 +$6 +6%
Knicks vs. Hornets Mar 27 $98 +$2 +2%
Rockets vs. Timberwolves Mar 26 $1,324 −$1,023 -77%
Thunder vs. Celtics Mar 26 $1,944 −$420 -22%
Spurs vs. Grizzlies Mar 26 $186 +$14 +7%
Hawks vs. Pistons Mar 26 $1,840 −$242 -13%
Warriors vs. Mavericks Mar 24 $561 −$8 -1%
Pacers vs. Magic Mar 24 $878 −$17 -2%
Rockets vs. Bulls Mar 24 $657 −$357 -54%
Timberwolves vs. Celtics Mar 23 $297 +$26 +9%
Cavaliers vs. Pelicans Mar 22 $303 +$23 +8%
Clippers vs. Mavericks Mar 22 $598 −$69 -12%
Celtics vs. Grizzlies Mar 21 $296 +$104 +35%
Cavaliers vs. Bulls Mar 20 $903 +$79 +9%
Heat vs. Suns Mar 20 $9 $0 -5%
Trail Blazers vs. Wizards Mar 20 $14 +$5 +32%
Timberwolves vs. Heat Mar 20 $39 −$39 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs Mar 20 $133 −$133 -100%
Pelicans vs. Cavaliers Mar 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Lakers vs. Cavaliers Mar 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Heat vs. Hawks Mar 20 $363 −$48 -13%
Cavaliers vs. Bulls Mar 20 $99 −$99 -100%
Clippers vs. Suns Mar 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Nets vs. Timberwolves Mar 20 $154 −$105 -68%
Raptors vs. Thunder Mar 20 $29 $0 -1%
Cavaliers vs. Trail Blazers Mar 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Nuggets vs. Mavericks Mar 20 $109 −$109 -100%
Raptors vs. Heat Mar 20 $104 −$104 -100%
Lakers vs. Clippers Mar 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Jazz vs. Spurs Mar 20 $389 −$216 -56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
World Cup: Fastest Goal Record Broken? BUY No 97¢ $5 1h
JD Vance out as VP by December 31? BUY No 93¢ $46 1h
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $99 7d
Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $15 9d
Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $25 9d
Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $10 9d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $50 9d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $10 9d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $20 10d
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $10 10d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 11d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $15 11d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $15 11d
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $10 11d
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by July 31? BUY No 98¢ $10 12d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House BUY Yes 35¢ $6 12d
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $10 13d
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes $0 13d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.44 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $5 14d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.44 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $5 15d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 57¢ $11 15d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 60¢ $6 15d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 60¢ $2 15d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 60¢ $23 15d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,200 in June? BUY No 97¢ $48 16d
Will XRP reach $2.80 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $4 16d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House BUY Yes 35¢ $11 16d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House BUY Yes 35¢ $1 16d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 39¢ $0 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $826.41 · official $826.41 (match) · 2209 history records