Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:11:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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8C 0x8c68…f7d6 crypto 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 218d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$940 (-2%) realized −$1,155 · open +$215
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate52%12W / 11L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,855per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,625now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$581
7 days−$581
14 days−$581
30 days−$581
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$1,418
tech 3% +$255
politics 3% −$321
finance 1% +$612
sports 1% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -38.7% -44.6% 17% 17% -45.3%
≤30d 6 -38.7% -44.6% 17% 17% -45.3%
≤90d 7 -36.8% -42.8% 14% 14% -39.3%
all 23 -10.7% -19.2% 52% 9% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.2% 9% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -26.9% 9% -20.0%
15% -34.0% 9% -27.7%
20% -40.5% 9% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% too few recent
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$3,715) neutral
Persistence
early -10% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$119 vs −$227 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

218d coverage
Net worth$1,625
Realized−$1,155
Unrealized+$215
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses12 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)23 / 27
History coverage218d
Avg bet$1,855
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $825 $826 +$1 (+0%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $375 $409 +$34 (+9%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? Yes 3¢ 7¢ $150 $370 +$220 (+146%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 17? Yes 14¢ 4¢ $60 $20 −$40 (-67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? Jun 16 $372 −$199 -53%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? Jun 16 $110 −$36 -32%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? Jun 16 $238 −$169 -71%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? Jun 16 $406 −$305 -75%
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 15? Jun 15 $236 +$235 +100%
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on June 15? Jun 15 $114 −$107 -94%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 21 $1,276 −$321 -25%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 07 $480 +$20 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March? Mar 06 $500 +$612 +122%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 28? Nov 26 $3,864 −$387 -10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 26? Nov 25 $3,805 +$59 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 25? Nov 25 $3,715 +$90 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 24? Nov 24 $3,640 +$75 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on November 21? Nov 21 $3,618 +$22 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on November 21? Nov 21 $3,782 −$188 -5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on November 21? Nov 21 $24 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 21? Nov 21 $3,736 +$46 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on November 20? Nov 21 $3,553 +$176 +5%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on November 21? Nov 20 $3,710 +$26 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on November 19? Nov 19 $3,489 +$68 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 19? Nov 18 $3,661 −$172 -5%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,900 and $3,000 on November 13 Nov 12 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95,000 in November? Nov 12 $4,275 −$552 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 17? BUY Yes 14¢ $64 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 47¢ $235 30h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 16¢ $330 30h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? SELL Yes 3¢ $173 31h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 59¢ $465 31h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 59¢ $125 31h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 32h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 16¢ $38 32h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $156 32h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $74 33h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $70 33h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $100 33h
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 15? SELL Yes 80¢ $471 45h
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on June 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $114 47h
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $236 47h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $11 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $14 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? BUY Yes 6¢ $8 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $11 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $42 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,624.82 · official $1,519.82 · 148 history records