trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 30 | -23.9% | -31.1% | 37% | 37% | -19.5% |
| ≤30d | 30 | -23.9% | -31.1% | 37% | 37% | -19.5% |
| ≤90d | 37 | -29.2% | -36.0% | 32% | 30% | -46.9% |
| all | 37 | -29.2% | -36.0% | 32% | 30% | -46.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -36.0% | 30% | -46.9% |
| 10% | -42.1% | 24% | -51.9% |
| 15% | -47.7% | 24% | -56.6% |
| 20% | -52.8% | 11% | -60.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | Yes | 13¢ | 12¢ | $100 | $97 | −$3 (-3%) |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 18¢ | $50 | $57 | +$7 (+15%) |
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $50 | $46 | −$4 (-8%) |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 3¢ | $32 | $33 | +$1 (+2%) |
| Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? | Yes | 26¢ | 26¢ | $23 | $23 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | Yes | 3¢ | 1¢ | $50 | $22 | −$28 (-57%) |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | Yes | 3¢ | 2¢ | $20 | $17 | −$3 (-14%) |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? | Yes | 19¢ | 18¢ | $15 | $14 | −$1 (-8%) |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $1 | −$4 (-75%) |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Yes | 18¢ | 10¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-47%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Portugal (-2.5) | Jun 17 | $61 | −$49 | -80% |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 17 | $338 | +$63 | +19% |
| Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 17 | $20 | +$8 | +42% |
| Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 17 | $5 | −$4 | -81% |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 17 | $20 | +$8 | +40% |
| Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 17 | $145 | +$31 | +21% |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 16 | $15 | +$7 | +48% |
| Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 16 | $30 | −$2 | -5% |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 15 | $37 | −$3 | -9% |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 15 | $43 | −$43 | -99% |
| Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 15 | $20 | −$20 | -99% |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 15 | $51 | −$8 | -15% |
| Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 15 | $10 | +$9 | +93% |
| Spread: Spain (-4.5) | Jun 15 | $22 | −$21 | -98% |
| Spread: Spain (-3.5) | Jun 15 | $15 | −$15 | -98% |
| Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? | Jun 15 | $10 | +$27 | +262% |
| Spread: Germany (-2.5) | Jun 14 | $25 | +$12 | +46% |
| Spread: Spain (-2.5) | Jun 13 | $34 | −$34 | -99% |
| Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 13 | $5 | −$5 | -98% |
| Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? | Jun 13 | $5 | −$5 | -97% |
| Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? | Jun 13 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 13 | $20 | −$20 | -99% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $15 | +$15 | +97% |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 12 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 12 | $20 | −$20 | -99% |
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $5 | +$8 | +165% |
| Spread: Scotland (-1.5) | Jun 12 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 12 | $15 | −$15 | -99% |
| Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) | Jun 12 | $20 | −$20 | -99% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $20 | +$8 | +42% |
| Will Trump visit China by May 15? | May 07 | $145 | −$140 | -97% |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Apr 16 | $759 | −$488 | -64% |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Apr 13 | $271 | +$21 | +8% |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? | Apr 11 | $218 | −$114 | -52% |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? | Apr 10 | $473 | −$254 | -54% |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Mar 28 | $389 | −$221 | -57% |
| Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina | Mar 27 | $100 | −$11 | -11% |