Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:13:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8c6a…664a other 142 markets active 2h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$45 (-0%) realized −$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate9%12W / 127L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$237per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$17
politics 34% −$15
sports 9% −$14
crypto 4% −$1
tech 3% −$1
economics 3% −$1
world 2% −$1
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 100 -0.1% -9.6% 1% 0% -9.6%
all 139 -4.0% -13.2% 9% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 4% -9.7%
10% -21.5% 3% -18.3%
15% -29.1% 2% -26.2%
20% -36.0% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×6.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses12 / 127
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)139 / 142
History coverage128d
Avg bet$237
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Will Solana reach $140 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $260 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $451 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $468 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 20 $226 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $24 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $38 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $38 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $38 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $27 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $219 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $276 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $225 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $251 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $26 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $239 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $24 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $643 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $658 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $681 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 25 $245 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 24 $244 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 21 $216 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $179 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $662 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $183 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $219 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $460 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $49 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $202 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $209 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $409 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $426 −$1 -0%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 11 $173 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $230 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $248 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $191 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $413 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $235 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $406 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $198 $0 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election May 05 $382 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $417 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $195 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $182 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 02 $442 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $201 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $432 −$1 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 29 $171 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 28 $176 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $236 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? BUY No 99¢ $22 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $36 1h
Will Solana reach $140 in June? BUY No 100¢ $29 1h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $33 1h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $33 21h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $23 26h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $23 34h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $40 34h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $40 2d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $26 2d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 8d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $24 8d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $24 8d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $38 12d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 13d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $38 14d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $38 14d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $38 14d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 16d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 18d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 19d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $38 19d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 19d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $38 20d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $38 20d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 20d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 21d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $26 21d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $26 21d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $26 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.93 · official $86.93 (match) · 433 history records