Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:53:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8C 0x8c6f…c9a0 other 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$477 (+14%) realized +$462 · open +$15
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate78%14W / 4L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Kalshi-fit16%portable
Net worth$225now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days+$384
14 days+$432
30 days+$432
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$67
other 49% +$381
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -6.3% -15.2% 73% 27% +7.4%
≤30d 18 +5.8% -4.3% 78% 39% +3.3%
≤90d 18 +5.8% -4.3% 78% 39% +3.3%
all 18 +5.8% -4.3% 78% 39% +3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.3% 39% +3.3%
10% -13.4% 22% -6.6%
15% -21.8% 17% -15.6%
20% -29.5% 17% -23.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$9 · ×3.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×12.67 per $1 lost it wins $12.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$225
Realized+$462
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses14 / 4
Open positions7
Markets (closed)18 / 25
History coverage13d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit16%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Yes 90¢ 99¢ $135 $149 +$14 (+11%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 95¢ 95¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 36¢ 38¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+7%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+22%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $130 +$9 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $79 +$3 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $160 +$44 +27%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $37 −$14 -38%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 18 $3 $0 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $377 +$19 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $95 +$5 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 17 $710 +$25 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -60%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $451 +$296 +66%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $444 +$52 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $320 −$20 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $3 +$2 +69%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $230 +$10 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 08 $5 +$4 +79%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $5 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 14m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 2h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $139 2h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $11 4h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $19 4h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $135 5h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $19 5h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 5h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $65 13h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $50 14h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $63 22h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $199 23h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $32 23h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 24h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $33 24h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $3 24h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $14 24h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $1 24h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $38 25h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $7 25h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $7 28h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $6 28h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 28h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 29h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $7 29h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 33h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $100 35h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 35h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 36h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $225.36 · official $225.36 (match) · 97 history records