Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:15:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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8C 0x8c73…6daf sports 1177 markets active 0h ago coverage 80d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 79d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$27,190 (-3%) realized −$26,701 · open −$489
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate68%803W / 373L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$921per market
Trades / day41.0pace
Fees−$7,179est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$291now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7,923
7 days−$9,390
14 days−$13,272
30 days−$54,210
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$24,532
crypto 2% −$1,389
other 1% −$1,206
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 97 -11.7% -20.1% 55% 44% -19.5%
≤30d 450 -13.6% -21.8% 58% 50% -21.1%
≤90d 1176 -2.1% -11.5% 68% 54% -11.7%
all 1176 -2.1% -11.5% 68% 54% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 54% -11.7%
10% -19.9% 34% -20.2%
15% ← realistic here -27.7% 18% -27.9%
20% -34.8% 7% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$1,007) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$183 vs −$465 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$291
Realized−$26,701
Unrealized−$489
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses803 / 373
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$7,179
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1176 / 1177
History coverage80d ⚠
Avg bet$921
Trades / day41.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1176 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner T1 Academy 71¢ 26¢ $780 $291 −$489 (-63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $2,083 −$190 -9%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $1,035 −$281 -27%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $404 −$15 -4%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $1,008 +$360 +36%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $403 +$110 +27%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $504 −$382 -76%
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $403 +$116 +29%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston Jun 18 $606 +$52 +8%
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 18 $505 +$5 +1%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $302 +$61 +20%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $202 +$92 +46%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne Jun 18 $1,500 +$489 +33%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne Jun 18 $805 −$167 -21%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $48 −$48 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 18 $303 −$303 -100%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $294 −$294 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $404 −$404 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $498 −$498 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $506 −$506 -100%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 18 $709 −$709 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $1,010 −$1,010 -100%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 18 $2,708 −$2,708 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 18 $2,218 −$1,777 -80%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne Jun 18 $404 +$233 +58%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne Jun 18 $386 +$110 +29%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $504 +$163 +32%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 18 $503 +$121 +24%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $505 −$500 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $283 +$158 +56%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,250 −$793 -63%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,113 −$883 -42%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $710 −$542 -76%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $603 +$102 +17%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $503 +$106 +21%
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 16 $904 −$167 -18%
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee Jun 16 $1,103 +$105 +10%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $442 +$251 +57%
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 16 $995 +$131 +13%
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 16 $804 −$335 -42%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $2,748 −$1,416 -52%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $1,507 +$246 +16%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $1,008 −$57 -6%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $201 −$45 -22%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,523 +$1,535 +101%
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Lorenzo Giustino Jun 15 $301 −$8 -3%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $711 −$517 -73%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $67 +$33 +50%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $303 −$120 -40%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $381 +$790 +207%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 67¢ $202 20m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 72¢ $585 22m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 Academy 99¢ $1,583 49m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 83¢ $995 1h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 76¢ $307 1h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 30¢ $309 1h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 74¢ $781 1h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $435 1h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 89¢ $201 1h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 87¢ $12 1h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 80¢ $160 1h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 31¢ $225 1h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 68¢ $505 1h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 35¢ $94 1h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 57¢ $158 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $204 15h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 62¢ $389 15h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $404 17h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,368 17h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $513 17h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $1,008 17h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 18¢ $122 17h
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina SELL Alexandra Eala 100¢ $519 17h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 78¢ $403 18h
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina BUY Alexandra Eala 77¢ $403 18h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston SELL Ann Li 74¢ $658 18h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 72¢ $504 18h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston BUY Ann Li 67¢ $606 18h
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci SELL Mattia Bellucci 69¢ $510 18h
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Mattia Bellucci 67¢ $505 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $291.11 · official $291.11 (match) · 3500 history records