Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:30:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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8C 0x8c77…033e crypto 27 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$692 (+29%) realized +$630 · open +$62
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%13W / 12L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day14.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$262now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% +$261
other 35% +$244
sports 3% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -0.5% -10.0% 52% 52% +8.7%
≤30d 25 -0.5% -10.0% 52% 52% +8.7%
≤90d 25 -0.5% -10.0% 52% 52% +8.7%
all 25 -0.5% -10.0% 52% 52% +8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 52% +8.7%
10% -18.6% 48% -1.7%
15% -26.5% 44% -11.2%
20% -33.7% 40% -19.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +20% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$97 vs −$69 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$262
Realized+$630
Unrealized+$62
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses13 / 12
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)25 / 27
History coverage2d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day14.7
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 35¢ 56¢ $100 $161 +$61 (+61%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 18 $103 +$77 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 18 $132 −$125 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 18 $209 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 18 $104 +$152 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 18 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 18 $103 +$75 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 18 $103 +$82 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 18 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 18 $106 +$421 +398%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 18 $41 +$13 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $52 +$39 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 18 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 18 $128 +$73 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$5 +19%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $101 +$40 +40%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $105 −$100 -96%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $30 +$18 +60%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $405 +$261 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $103 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $27 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $105 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $106 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $41 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $104 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $103 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 4h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 25h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $105 25h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 25h
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $102 26h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 26h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 26h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 28h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $262.44 · official $265.33 · 44 history records