Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:57:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8c77…4141 crypto 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$199 (-7%) realized −$198 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate92%48W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$99
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
culture 52% $0
crypto 35% +$21
other 10% −$302
tech 1% $0
finance 1% +$79
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 38 +10.5% -0.0% 97% 5% +1.8%
≤90d 48 +8.5% -1.8% 98% 4% -0.5%
all 52 +4.0% -5.9% 92% 4% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 4% -15.9%
10% -14.9% 4% -23.9%
15% -23.1% 4% -31.3%
20% -30.7% 4% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 97% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$105 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$198
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses48 / 4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)52 / 55
History coverage147d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 22? No 100¢ 98¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? Jun 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 13? Jun 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 10? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on June 9? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on June 8? Jun 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on June 8? Jun 09 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 5? Jun 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 5? Jun 08 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 4? Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3? Jun 04 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 2? Jun 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $68,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 1? Jun 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 1? Jun 02 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 29? Jun 01 $12 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 29? Jun 01 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on May 28? May 29 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 28? May 29 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 27? May 28 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on May 27? May 28 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 26? May 27 $30 $0 +0%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on May 26? May 27 $21 +$79 +384%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 25? May 26 $11 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET May 26 $30 +$31 +105%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 23? May 25 $12 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on May 23? May 25 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on May 22? May 23 $12 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 22? May 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 21? May 22 $13 $0 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 21? May 22 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 20? May 21 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 20? May 21 $34 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 19? May 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on May 19? May 20 $34 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on May 18? May 19 $12 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $72,000 on May 18? May 19 $31 $0 +0%
NYA (NYA) Up or Down on March 12? Mar 12 $300 −$300 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on January 26 Mar 04 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $8 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $32 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $31 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $9 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $31 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $30 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $9 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $10 10d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 12d
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $10 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 13d
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $9 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on June 8? BUY No 99¢ $30 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $30 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 18d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $9 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $31 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $68,000 on June 2? BUY No 99¢ $13 20d
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $32 20d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $11 21d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $32 21d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 29? BUY Yes 99¢ $12 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.99 · official $42.99 (match) · 108 history records