Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:48:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8C
0x8c77…4d42
sports · 33 markets active 0h ago
4.5score
+$7,752 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$7,958 · open −$2,729
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$18,499
Realized+$7,958
Unrealized−$2,729
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses16 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$3,338
Open positions5
Markets (closed)28 / 33
History coverage607d
Avg bet$5,433
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 5 History 28 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$626
7 days+$4,336
14 days+$5,109
30 days+$7,950
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Knicks vs. Spurs Knicks 34¢ 30¢ $10,871 $9,882 −$989 (-9%)
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? No 13¢ 24¢ $1,944 $3,616 +$1,673 (+86%)
Will Jared Hudson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $2,478 $2,396 −$82 (-3%)
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Knicks 69¢ 66¢ $1,425 $1,364 −$61 (-4%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 27¢ $4,511 $1,241 −$3,270 (-72%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Up $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Golden Knights $620 $0 −$620 (-100%)
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Golden Knights 14¢ $156 $0 −$156 (-100%)
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Tucuman: Juan Estevez vs Matias Soto Matias Soto 12¢ $401 $0 −$401 (-100%)
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez Juan Estevez $180 $0 −$180 (-100%)
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini Andrea Collarini 17¢ $1,146 $0 −$1,146 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $1,568 −$626 -40%
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt Jun 11 $2,767 −$491 -18%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $14,019 +$945 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -94%
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez Jun 11 $1,916 +$687 +36%
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini Jun 11 $1,854 −$1,014 -55%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $60 −$49 -81%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $2 +$1 +40%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $24,947 +$1,685 +7%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $18,421 −$2,515 -14%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $12,175 +$1,053 +9%
Tucuman: Juan Estevez vs Matias Soto Jun 09 $11,063 +$177 +2%
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $18,592 +$2,148 +12%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 09 $8,617 +$2,418 +28%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 07 $1,087 −$344 -32%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $621 +$272 +44%
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 06 $3 −$3 -96%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $2,345 +$305 +13%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 06 $620 +$132 +21%
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Jun 06 $36 −$2 -5%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 05 $8,930 +$272 +3%
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el Jun 04 $1,943 +$67 +4%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $1,840 +$1,104 +60%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $5,782 +$1,880 +32%
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el May 19 $6,893 −$143 -2%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 10 $332 +$162 +49%
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 65-104 Nov 06 $486 −$154 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 70% +$1,186
politics 25% +$7,323
world 5% −$3,270
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) BUY Knicks 69¢ $378 10m
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) BUY Knicks 69¢ $827 10m
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) BUY Knicks 69¢ $69 10m
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) BUY Knicks 69¢ $155 10m
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 27¢ $12 18m
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 27¢ $194 18m
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 27¢ $45 18m
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 27¢ $17 18m
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 27¢ $2 18m
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 26¢ $260 18m
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 25¢ $21 18m
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 25¢ $91 18m
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 25¢ $14 18m
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 25¢ $1 18m
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 25¢ $14 18m
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 25¢ $180 18m
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 25¢ $25 18m
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 25¢ $16 18m
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 25¢ $109 18m
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 25¢ $29 18m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 20¢ $200 26m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 20¢ $200 28m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 23¢ $222 32m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 23¢ $2 32m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 23¢ $6 32m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 23¢ $229 37m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 23¢ $1 37m
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 32¢ $640 38m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 26¢ $520 46m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 26¢ $494 47m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +41.6% +28.1% 53% 41% -5.2%
≤30d 26 +28.2% +16.0% 58% 42% -3.5%
≤90d 26 +28.2% +16.0% 58% 42% -3.5%
all 28 +26.8% +14.7% 57% 43% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +14.7% 43% -3.6%
10% ← realistic here +3.7% 32% -12.8%
15% -6.3% 25% -21.2%
20% -15.5% 11% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18,498.99 · official $18,498.99 (match) · 1795 history records