trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Knicks | 34¢ | 30¢ | $10,871 | $9,882 | −$989 (-9%) |
| Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? | No | 13¢ | 24¢ | $1,944 | $3,616 | +$1,673 (+86%) |
| Will Jared Hudson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? | Yes | 21¢ | 20¢ | $2,478 | $2,396 | −$82 (-3%) |
| Spread: Spurs (-11.5) | Knicks | 69¢ | 66¢ | $1,425 | $1,364 | −$61 (-4%) |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Yes | 27¢ | 8¢ | $4,511 | $1,241 | −$3,270 (-72%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET | Up | 1¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes | Golden Knights | 8¢ | 0¢ | $620 | $0 | −$620 (-100%) |
| Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights | Golden Knights | 14¢ | 0¢ | $156 | $0 | −$156 (-100%) |
| Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | No | 6¢ | 0¢ | $3 | $0 | −$3 (-100%) |
| Tucuman: Juan Estevez vs Matias Soto | Matias Soto | 12¢ | 0¢ | $401 | $0 | −$401 (-100%) |
| Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez | Juan Estevez | 8¢ | 0¢ | $180 | $0 | −$180 (-100%) |
| Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini | Andrea Collarini | 17¢ | 0¢ | $1,146 | $0 | −$1,146 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes | Jun 12 | $1,568 | −$626 | -40% |
| Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt | Jun 11 | $2,767 | −$491 | -18% |
| Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals | Jun 11 | $14,019 | +$945 | +7% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET | Jun 11 | $11 | −$10 | -94% |
| Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez | Jun 11 | $1,916 | +$687 | +36% |
| Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini | Jun 11 | $1,854 | −$1,014 | -55% |
| Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers | Jun 11 | $60 | −$49 | -81% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins | Jun 11 | $2 | +$1 | +40% |
| Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers | Jun 11 | $24,947 | +$1,685 | +7% |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 11 | $18,421 | −$2,515 | -14% |
| Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights | Jun 10 | $12,175 | +$1,053 | +9% |
| Tucuman: Juan Estevez vs Matias Soto | Jun 09 | $11,063 | +$177 | +2% |
| Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An | Jun 09 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 09 | $18,592 | +$2,148 | +12% |
| Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec | Jun 09 | $8,617 | +$2,418 | +28% |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 07 | $1,087 | −$344 | -32% |
| Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights | Jun 07 | $621 | +$272 | +44% |
| Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang | Jun 06 | $3 | −$3 | -96% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 06 | $2,345 | +$305 | +13% |
| Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el | Jun 06 | $620 | +$132 | +21% |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | Jun 06 | $36 | −$2 | -5% |
| Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Jun 05 | $8,930 | +$272 | +3% |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el | Jun 04 | $1,943 | +$67 | +4% |
| Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? | May 20 | $1,840 | +$1,104 | +60% |
| Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? | May 20 | $5,782 | +$1,880 | +32% |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el | May 19 | $6,893 | −$143 | -2% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Nov 10 | $332 | +$162 | +49% |
| 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 65-104 | Nov 06 | $486 | −$154 | -32% |
| Market | side | price | size | when |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Spurs (-11.5) | BUY Knicks | 69¢ | $378 | 10m |
| Spread: Spurs (-11.5) | BUY Knicks | 69¢ | $827 | 10m |
| Spread: Spurs (-11.5) | BUY Knicks | 69¢ | $69 | 10m |
| Spread: Spurs (-11.5) | BUY Knicks | 69¢ | $155 | 10m |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | SELL Knicks | 27¢ | $12 | 18m |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | SELL Knicks | 27¢ | $194 | 18m |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | SELL Knicks | 27¢ | $45 | 18m |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | SELL Knicks | 27¢ | $17 | 18m |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | SELL Knicks | 27¢ | $2 | 18m |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | SELL Knicks | 26¢ | $260 | 18m |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | SELL Knicks | 25¢ | $21 | 18m |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | SELL Knicks | 25¢ | $91 | 18m |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | SELL Knicks | 25¢ | $14 | 18m |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | SELL Knicks | 25¢ | $1 | 18m |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | SELL Knicks | 25¢ | $14 | 18m |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | SELL Knicks | 25¢ | $180 | 18m |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | SELL Knicks | 25¢ | $25 | 18m |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | SELL Knicks | 25¢ | $16 | 18m |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | SELL Knicks | 25¢ | $109 | 18m |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | SELL Knicks | 25¢ | $29 | 18m |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | BUY Knicks | 20¢ | $200 | 26m |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | BUY Knicks | 20¢ | $200 | 28m |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | BUY Knicks | 23¢ | $222 | 32m |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | BUY Knicks | 23¢ | $2 | 32m |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | BUY Knicks | 23¢ | $6 | 32m |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | BUY Knicks | 23¢ | $229 | 37m |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | BUY Knicks | 23¢ | $1 | 37m |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | SELL Knicks | 32¢ | $640 | 38m |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | BUY Knicks | 26¢ | $520 | 46m |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | BUY Knicks | 26¢ | $494 | 47m |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 17 | +41.6% | +28.1% | 53% | 41% | -5.2% |
| ≤30d | 26 | +28.2% | +16.0% | 58% | 42% | -3.5% |
| ≤90d | 26 | +28.2% | +16.0% | 58% | 42% | -3.5% |
| all | 28 | +26.8% | +14.7% | 57% | 43% | -3.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | +14.7% | 43% | -3.6% |
| 10% ← realistic here | +3.7% | 32% | -12.8% |
| 15% | -6.3% | 25% | -21.2% |
| 20% | -15.5% | 11% | -28.9% |