Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:23:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
8C 0x8c78…13ed other 170 markets active 1h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,732 (+3%) realized +$4,204 · open −$472
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate72%109W / 43L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$744per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$7,260now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$217
7 days+$486
14 days+$902
30 days+$3,267
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% +$1,759
politics 12% −$86
world 8% −$146
crypto 5% −$107
sports 4% +$1,408
finance 3% +$237
economics 0% +$4
tech 0% −$83
culture 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)+1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +18.6% +7.3% 71% 71% -1.2%
≤30d 30 +33.6% +20.8% 67% 53% +1.1%
≤90d 63 +33.1% +20.4% 68% 29% -6.1%
all 152 +12.3% +1.6% 72% 16% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.6% 16% -6.8%
10% ← realistic here -8.1% 11% -15.7%
15% -17.0% 5% -23.9%
20% -25.1% 5% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$870) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$46 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.9 per $1 lost it wins $2.9
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$7,260
Realized+$4,204
Unrealized−$472
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses109 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions18
Markets (closed)152 / 170
History coverage149d
Avg bet$744
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 152 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? No 92¢ 94¢ $3,209 $3,281 +$72 (+2%)
Probable FDV above $50M one day after launch? No 88¢ 86¢ $1,128 $1,107 −$21 (-2%)
Probable FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 91¢ 91¢ $809 $805 −$4 (-0%)
Extended FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 93¢ 94¢ $758 $770 +$12 (+2%)
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 75¢ 73¢ $375 $363 −$12 (-3%)
Will Extended launch a token by December 31 2026? Yes 70¢ 81¢ $165 $190 +$25 (+15%)
Extended FDV above $3B one day after launch? No 95¢ 95¢ $186 $187 +$0 (+0%)
Will Hyperbeat launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 77¢ 96¢ $140 $175 +$34 (+25%)
Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes 60¢ 12¢ $662 $138 −$525 (-79%)
Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch? No 91¢ 90¢ $95 $94 −$2 (-2%)
Probable FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 92¢ 81¢ $86 $77 −$10 (-11%)
Probable FDV above $800M one day after launch? No 93¢ 78¢ $41 $34 −$6 (-16%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $19 $11 −$8 (-41%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $10 −$10 (-50%)
Will Florian Wirtz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $7 $9 +$2 (+25%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $16 $4 −$11 (-71%)
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $9 $4 −$5 (-58%)
Will Federico Valverde be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4 $1 −$3 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hurupay launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 16 $1,077 +$317 +30%
Will Hurupay launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $394 +$54 +14%
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $1,095 −$154 -14%
Ethereal FDV above $25M one day after launch? Jun 14 $1,072 −$78 -7%
Will Hotstuff launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $91 +$67 +74%
Will Noble launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 10 $539 +$78 +14%
Will Noble launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $1,025 +$201 +20%
Hyperbeat FDV above $10M one day after launch? Jun 09 $512 +$133 +26%
Will Hyperbeat launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 09 $81 +$190 +236%
Hyperbeat FDV above $25M one day after launch? Jun 09 $36 +$19 +53%
Will Surf launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 09 $239 +$59 +24%
Will Ethereal launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 08 $387 +$77 +20%
Will Ethereal launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $30 −$1 -2%
Will MagicBlock launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 07 $625 −$63 -10%
Will MagicBlock launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $138 −$33 -24%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $8 by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $3,902 +$19 +0%
Tabi FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 04 $26 +$16 +61%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $2,171 −$64 -3%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $385 −$17 -4%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $2,021 −$28 -1%
Will Tori launch a token by September 30, 2027? Jun 01 $33 −$3 -8%
Will Tori launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $497 +$95 +19%
Will Surf launch a token by December 31, 2026? May 31 $24 −$2 -7%
Will Tori launch a token by June 30, 2027? May 31 $63 +$18 +28%
Will Curvance launch a token by June 30, 2027? May 31 $980 +$18 +2%
Will Curvance launch a token by December 31, 2026? May 31 $942 +$215 +23%
Will Hyperbeat launch a token by December 31, 2026? May 28 $119 +$482 +404%
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 26 $516 +$44 +9%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $5,635 +$1,406 +25%
Will Hyperliquid reach $54 by December 31, 2026? May 21 $3,301 +$200 +6%
Unit FDV above $2B one day after launch? May 06 $2 +$23 +1098%
Unit FDV above $3B one day after launch? May 06 $42 −$2 -5%
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? May 02 $410 −$10 -2%
Abstract FDV above $600M one day after launch? Apr 30 $10 $0 +4%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 29 $4,820 −$1 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Apr 28 $3,900 −$203 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Apr 28 $320 −$8 -2%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $55 −$6 -12%
Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026? Apr 28 $655 −$16 -2%
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? Apr 28 $1,628 +$1 +0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? Apr 25 $557 +$19 +4%
USD.AI FDV above $200M one day after launch? Apr 23 $998 +$2 +0%
USD.AI FDV above $6B one day after launch? Apr 23 $7,294 +$1 +0%
USD.AI FDV above $3B one day after launch? Apr 23 $1,598 +$2 +0%
USD.AI FDV above $4B one day after launch? Apr 23 $2,857 +$3 +0%
USD.AI FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 23 $3,332 +$7 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Apr 20 $1,160 +$5 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Apr 19 $3,560 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Apr 18 $501 +$6 +1%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 by December 31, 2026? Apr 18 $702 +$66 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Extended FDV above $3B one day after launch? BUY No 95¢ $187 1h
Will Florian Wirtz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 9h
Will Florian Wirtz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 9h
Will Florian Wirtz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 13h
Will Florian Wirtz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 13h
Will Florian Wirtz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 13h
Will Florian Wirtz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 13h
Will Florian Wirtz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 13h
Will Florian Wirtz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 13h
Will Florian Wirtz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 13h
Will Florian Wirtz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 13h
Will Florian Wirtz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 13h
Will Florian Wirtz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 13h
Will Florian Wirtz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 13h
Will Florian Wirtz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 13h
Will Florian Wirtz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 13h
Will Florian Wirtz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 13h
Will Florian Wirtz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 13h
Will Florian Wirtz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 13h
Will Florian Wirtz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 13h
Will Florian Wirtz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 13h
Will Florian Wirtz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 13h
Will Florian Wirtz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 13h
Will Florian Wirtz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 13h
Will Florian Wirtz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 13h
Will Florian Wirtz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 13h
Will Florian Wirtz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 13h
Will Florian Wirtz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 13h
Will Florian Wirtz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 13h
Will Florian Wirtz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,259.84 · official $7,259.84 (match) · 1795 history records