Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:29:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8c7a…f619 sports 379 markets active 1h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$338 (-8%) realized −$338 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate36%134W / 242L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$90
7 days−$212
14 days−$200
30 days−$273
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$167
other 29% −$182
crypto 3% −$20
world 2% −$5
politics 1% −$8
weather 1% −$26
economics 0% −$1
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -30.9% -37.5% 18% 18% -35.8%
≤30d 72 -14.5% -22.7% 36% 33% -26.8%
≤90d 320 -12.4% -20.8% 39% 38% -19.8%
all 376 -12.6% -20.9% 36% 34% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 34% -19.0%
10% -28.5% 33% -26.8%
15% -35.4% 28% -33.8%
20% -41.7% 21% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$338
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses134 / 242
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions3
Markets (closed)376 / 379
History coverage101d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 376 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? No 71¢ 70¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 76¢ 76¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 96 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 −$31 -76%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $38 −$10 -26%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 $0 -4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $36 +$10 +27%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $21 −$4 -17%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $24 −$5 -19%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $18 −$1 -5%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $36 −$1 -3%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $24 −$11 -43%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $24 −$15 -62%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $27 −$23 -84%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $15 −$1 -5%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 17.5 Jun 14 $55 −$34 -62%
Will SC Recife win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $18 −$1 -4%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $28 −$27 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $22 −$21 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $36 −$35 -98%
Will FF Jaro vs. HJK Helsinki end in a draw? Jun 14 $36 −$4 -12%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $18 −$1 -6%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $18 +$7 +36%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $36 +$11 +30%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $36 −$36 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $30 +$8 +27%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 Jun 11 $18 −$1 -5%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $18 −$1 -4%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $39 +$21 +52%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 11.5 Jun 10 $18 +$5 +29%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5 Jun 10 $18 +$6 +32%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 11.5 Jun 10 $24 +$8 +35%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5 Jun 09 $18 −$11 -58%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5 Jun 09 $18 +$10 +55%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5 Jun 09 $18 −$11 -58%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 09 $18 −$18 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5 Jun 08 $18 −$1 -5%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5 Jun 07 $24 +$10 +41%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 12.5 Jun 07 $18 +$5 +29%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5) Jun 06 $18 −$1 -4%
JEF United Ichihara Chiba vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $12 +$6 +47%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5 Jun 06 $12 +$4 +31%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5 Jun 05 $12 −$2 -15%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5 Jun 04 $15 −$6 -39%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5 Jun 04 $12 +$4 +32%
Spread: Saski Baskonia (-7.5) Jun 04 $3 +$2 +97%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5 Jun 03 $12 +$1 +8%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5 Jun 02 $21 −$21 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $12 +$8 +62%
Will Wolfsburg win on 2026-05-25? Jun 02 $12 +$8 +68%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5 Jun 01 $6 $0 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $20 30m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 17¢ $10 37m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 17¢ $2 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 32¢ $4 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $30 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 30¢ $8 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $10 8h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 56¢ $10 8h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 11h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $10 11h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 76¢ $10 11h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $5 11h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $18 18h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 45¢ $20 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $6 25h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 53¢ $17 32h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 51¢ $17 32h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL No 72¢ $12 32h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 68¢ $18 32h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $18 32h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $18 32h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $18 32h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $18 32h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 35¢ $3 33h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $18 41h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 30¢ $14 42h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 26¢ $9 44h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $6 45h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $4 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.60 · official $41.60 (match) · 864 history records