Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:28:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
8C 0x8c7d…7664 sports 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 77d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$48 (+11%) realized +$27 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 77d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$148
other 24% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +41.5% +28.0% 50% 50% +93.1%
≤30d 6 +34.0% +21.2% 67% 67% +27.8%
≤90d 7 +14.9% +3.9% 57% 57% +21.6%
all 7 +14.9% +3.9% 57% 57% +21.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.9% 57% +21.6%
10% -6.0% 43% +10.0%
15% -15.1% 29% -0.7%
20% -23.4% 29% -10.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$13 · ×3.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.5 per $1 lost it wins $4.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage77d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 49¢ 100¢ $20 $41 +$21 (+104%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $31 +$85 +276%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $30 +$27 +90%
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $201 +$55 +27%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 07 $20 −$19 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $20 1h
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 0.5 BUY Over 23¢ $10 1h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 0.5 BUY Over 77¢ $10 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $30 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 1h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 90¢ $100 9d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 78¢ $201 9d
Will Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $20 77d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.80 · official $40.80 (match) · 12 history records