Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:58:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8C 0x8c7e…be0c sports 370 markets active 1h ago coverage 409d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$179 (+0%) realized +$195 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate87%322W / 47L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days+$37
14 days+$59
30 days+$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$232
other 26% +$124
weather 10% +$80
world 4% −$225
crypto 3% −$106
politics 1% +$24
economics 1% +$1
finance 1% +$4
culture 0% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +55.5% +40.6% 79% 29% -6.2%
≤30d 78 +26.6% +14.6% 83% 9% -8.8%
≤90d 226 +12.3% +1.6% 81% 13% -12.1%
all 369 +9.0% -1.4% 87% 10% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.4% 10% -9.1%
10% -10.8% 5% -17.8%
15% -19.4% 4% -25.8%
20% -27.3% 3% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$26 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

409d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$195
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses322 / 47
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)369 / 370
History coverage409d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 369 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Poznan: Dalibor Svrcina vs Gustavo Heide Dalibor Svrcina 87¢ 18¢ $20 $4 −$16 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Max Alcala Gurri Jun 19 $100 +$3 +3%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon Jun 19 $2 +$2 +97%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $45 +$3 +6%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 18 $100 +$11 +11%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $10 +$3 +32%
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Roman Safiullin Jun 18 $4 $0 +1%
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Otto Virtanen Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $150 +$4 +3%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gonzalo Villanueva Jun 17 $150 +$3 +2%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $200 +$4 +2%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $200 +$6 +3%
Dublin: Yi Zhou vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 17 $150 +$3 +2%
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Colton Smith Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $5 +$2 +39%
Will Albania win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $100 +$3 +3%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $200 +$10 +5%
Foggia: Tyra Caterina Grant vs Darya Astakhova Jun 06 $100 +$4 +4%
Libema Open, Qualification: Benjamin Bonzi vs Marc Polmans Jun 06 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix Jun 06 $200 +$8 +4%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 01 $150 +$5 +3%
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Real Racing Club win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $200 +$3 +1%
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers Jun 01 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $250 +$3 +1%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets May 31 $150 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 31 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 31 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 29 $26 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 29 $26 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 29 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 29 $10 −$4 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 29 $26 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 29 $26 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 29 $26 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 29 $26 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 29 $26 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 29 $26 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 29 $26 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 29 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 29 $26 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 29 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 29 $26 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 29 $26 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 29 $26 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 29 $26 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 29 $26 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 29 $26 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 29 $26 +$2 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Max Alcala Gurri SELL Max Alcala Gurri 100¢ $103 1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon SELL Raphael Collignon 31¢ $0 1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon SELL Raphael Collignon 31¢ $4 1h
Poznan: Dalibor Svrcina vs Gustavo Heide BUY Dalibor Svrcina 87¢ $20 1h
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Max Alcala Gurri BUY Max Alcala Gurri 97¢ $100 1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 15¢ $2 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 94¢ $45 17h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 90¢ $100 19h
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Roman Safiullin BUY Zhizhen Zhang 99¢ $4 20h
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Otto Virtanen BUY Billy Harris 11¢ $1 20h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 75¢ $10 20h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 21h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 97¢ $150 21h
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gonzalo Villanueva BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 98¢ $150 42h
Dublin: Yi Zhou vs Nicolas Mejia BUY Yi Zhou 98¢ $150 44h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 98¢ $200 44h
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Colton Smith BUY Colton Smith 15¢ $2 44h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 97¢ $200 44h
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev SELL Flavio Cobolli 27¢ $7 11d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 19¢ $5 11d
Will Albania win on 2026-06-06? BUY No 97¢ $100 12d
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Seattle Mariners 95¢ $200 12d
Libema Open, Qualification: Benjamin Bonzi vs Marc Polmans BUY Marc Polmans 6¢ $5 12d
Foggia: Tyra Caterina Grant vs Darya Astakhova BUY Tyra Caterina Grant 96¢ $100 12d
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix SELL No 100¢ $208 12d
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix BUY No 96¢ $200 13d
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 98¢ $100 18d
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 96¢ $150 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.41 · official $3.58 (match) · 906 history records