Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:58:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
8C 0x8c7f…445a other 133 markets active 1h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$184 (-13%) realized −$187 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%42W / 77L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$106
sports 33% −$43
crypto 6% $0
economics 5% −$51
world 3% +$24
tech 1% −$10
politics 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -28.7% -35.5% 22% 22% -27.8%
≤30d 11 -27.0% -34.0% 27% 27% -1.7%
≤90d 16 -25.0% -32.1% 31% 31% -2.9%
all 119 -15.2% -23.3% 35% 35% -22.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.3% 35% -22.0%
10% -30.6% 34% -29.5%
15% -37.3% 29% -36.3%
20% -43.5% 29% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$9 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized−$187
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses42 / 77
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions12
Markets (closed)119 / 133
History coverage161d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum all time high by June 30, 2026? No 76¢ 100¢ $15 $20 +$5 (+31%)
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? No 77¢ 100¢ $15 $19 +$4 (+29%)
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $15 $10 −$5 (-32%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 13¢ 24¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+81%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026? Yes 20¢ 17¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 30¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+39%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 26¢ 2¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 74 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$8 +276%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 +$5 +165%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $4 −$3 -99%
Will CA Boca Juniors vs. CD Universidad Católica end in a draw? May 28 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? May 28 $30 +$18 +61%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04? Apr 14 $10 +$9 +93%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? Apr 14 $10 +$10 +104%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Apr 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Mar 17 $3 +$9 +313%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-01-13? Mar 12 $15 −$3 -20%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 12 $5 +$9 +178%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28? Mar 12 $5 +$11 +212%
Will Player 167 win Beast Games: Season 2? Mar 12 $5 +$12 +233%
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Mar 12 $10 +$10 +104%
Rio Open: Cristian Garin vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Feb 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Argentina Open: Alejandro Tabilo vs Tomas Etcheverry Feb 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-12? Feb 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Argentina Open: Joao Fonseca vs Alejandro Tabilo Feb 12 $15 +$14 +96%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-10? Feb 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Oly Feb 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Feb 09 $4 +$8 +199%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 09 $10 +$39 +392%
FC Barcelona vs. RCD Mallorca: Both Teams to Score Feb 07 $36 −$36 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-03? Feb 04 $35 +$5 +15%
Will Albacete Balompié vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Feb 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Solana reach $160 in January? Feb 02 $15 +$4 +25%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31? Feb 02 $15 +$4 +28%
Australian Open Men's: Novak Djokovic vs Jannik Sinner Jan 30 $43 −$43 -100%
FC Barcelona vs. FC København: O/U 3.5 Jan 30 $10 +$5 +54%
Will Powell say "Sorry" during January press conference? Jan 28 $20 +$7 +37%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-28? Jan 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Powell say "Median" during January press conference? Jan 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during January press conference? Jan 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Powell say "Stock Market" during January press conference? Jan 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Powell say "Trump" during January press conference? Jan 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Powell say "Too late" during January press conference? Jan 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jan 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex de Minaur Jan 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Alexander Zverev vs Learner Tien Jan 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Heat vs. Bulls Jan 26 $15 +$2 +16%
Australian Open Men's: Karen Khachanov vs Luciano Darderi Jan 26 $5 +$19 +376%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND BUY 20¢ $5 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND BUY 11¢ $3 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 4d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $4 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 4d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 4d
Will CA Boca Juniors vs. CD Universidad Católica end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $8 18d
Will FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 67d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 68d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 72d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 89d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 89d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $3 90d
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 95d
Rio Open: Cristian Garin vs Thiago Agustin Tirante BUY Garin 24¢ $32 118d
Argentina Open: Alejandro Tabilo vs Tomas Etcheverry BUY Tabilo 8¢ $2 122d
Argentina Open: Alejandro Tabilo vs Tomas Etcheverry BUY Tabilo 46¢ $10 122d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-12? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 122d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-12? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 123d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89.13 · official $97.04 · 352 history records