Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:48:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8c7f…d96c world 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 489d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$11 (-1%) realized −$9 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate47%18W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 60% +$3
world 27% −$5
economics 9% −$4
other 4% $0
culture 1% −$10
sports 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.5% -8.2% 20% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 17 +3.0% -6.8% 47% 18% -8.3%
≤90d 30 +0.6% -9.0% 47% 10% -9.6%
all 38 -4.2% -13.3% 47% 11% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 11% -10.0%
10% -21.6% 3% -18.6%
15% -29.2% 3% -26.5%
20% -36.1% 3% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

489d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$9
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses18 / 20
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)38 / 40
History coverage489d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 83¢ 80¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-4%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 75¢ 77¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $2 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 20 $40 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $5 $0 +8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $39 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $11 +$1 +11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $18 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $43 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $39 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $12 +$1 +12%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $3 $0 +12%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $18 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $37 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $31 +$2 +8%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $38 $0 +1%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $69 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $35 $0 +0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 26 $80 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 23 $24 −$8 -32%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 21 $52 −$1 -1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 21 $51 +$1 +1%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 07 $257 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 07 $226 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 07 $62 −$1 -2%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 06 $197 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $228 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 05 $227 +$1 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 10 $1 $0 +3%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $2 $0 +4%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $1 $0 +3%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? May 19 $0 $0 -100%
Bank of England rate cut in March meeting? Mar 21 $6 −$3 -51%
Will "I'm Not a Robot" win Best Action Short Film at the 2025 Oscars? Mar 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Will "Conclave" win Best Film Editing at the 2025 Oscars? Feb 24 $3 −$1 -25%
Eastern Kentucky vs. Bellarmine Feb 21 $5 +$4 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $40 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 41h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 43h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 88¢ $40 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 88¢ $40 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $39 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $39 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $11 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 23¢ $18 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $18 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $43 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $43 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $39 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $39 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $12 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $7 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 5¢ $4 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $3 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.91 · official $38.16 (match) · 128 history records