Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:00:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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8C 0x8c80…e07d crypto 1021 markets active 2h ago coverage 44d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 44d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$998 (-11%) realized −$998 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate64%656W / 365L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day43.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$32
7 days−$160
14 days−$304
30 days−$457
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 58% −$451
crypto 35% −$58
other 7% −$39
sports 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -13.0% -21.3% 85% 5% -14.0%
≤30d 342 -13.0% -21.3% 42% 11% -17.5%
≤90d 1021 -5.5% -14.5% 64% 44% -15.2%
all 1021 -5.5% -14.5% 64% 44% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.5% 44% -15.2%
10% ← realistic here -22.7% 23% -23.3%
15% -30.2% 15% -30.7%
20% -37.0% 10% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$998
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses656 / 365
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1021 / 1021
History coverage44d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day43.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1021 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 19? Jun 20 $29 +$1 +2%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.9% or more in May? Jun 20 $5 −$6 -117%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? Jun 20 $5 −$10 -200%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 12? Jun 20 $5 −$10 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 12? Jun 20 $5 −$10 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 19? Jun 19 $46 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $89 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $4 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 18 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? Jun 18 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 17? Jun 17 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 16? Jun 17 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 17 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $71 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 15? Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 16 $101 +$12 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $101 +$12 +12%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 92-93°F on June 15? Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 15 $28 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $42 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 14? Jun 15 $87 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $49 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 13 $62 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 13? Jun 13 $96 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 13? Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $69 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $36 +$4 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $52 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 11? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 11? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 10 Jun 11 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 10? Jun 11 $9 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 10? Jun 11 $9 $0 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on June 10? Jun 11 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 10? Jun 11 $34 −$34 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $35 −$6 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $22 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $52 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $22 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $21 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $73 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $29 12h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 19? SELL No 99¢ $47 13h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $46 14h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 19? SELL No 99¢ $91 26h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 96¢ $89 26h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 19? SELL No 99¢ $4 26h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $4 26h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $25 2d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY No 97¢ $100 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $25 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $101 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $100 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 91¢ $100 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $101 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $100 2d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $100 3d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $100 3d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $72 3d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $71 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $100 4d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? BUY No 93¢ $100 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records