Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T17:41:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8c83…dd00 world 79 markets active 1h ago coverage 532d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate27%21W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$3
other 19% −$13
politics 18% +$1
sports 11% $0
economics 3% +$1
crypto 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +0.6% -9.0% 45% 9% -9.2%
≤30d 26 +0.1% -9.5% 35% 4% -9.5%
≤90d 66 -2.2% -11.5% 24% 2% -9.7%
all 78 -0.7% -10.2% 27% 5% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 5% -10.0%
10% -18.8% 4% -18.6%
15% -26.6% 1% -26.5%
20% -33.8% 1% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

532d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses21 / 57
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)78 / 79
History coverage532d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 55¢ 54¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 24 $35 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $36 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $62 +$1 +1%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $29 +$3 +11%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $32 −$3 -10%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $72 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 19 $32 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $31 +$1 +3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $168 $0 -0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $65 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $34 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $64 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $34 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $63 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $61 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $77 −$1 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $29 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $59 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $12 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $66 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $86 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 31 $20 −$1 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $63 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $58 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $62 −$2 -3%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $1 $0 -6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $32 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $2 $0 -4%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Apr 27 $32 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $56 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $32 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $36 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $87 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $103 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $150 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 19 $33 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $72 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 18 $36 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 17 $33 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $70 $0 -1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $9 $0 -2%
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 14 $3 $0 -8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? Apr 14 $18 −$2 -12%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 13 $33 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $35 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $35 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 67¢ $36 6h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 67¢ $36 6h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $32 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $32 23h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $32 26h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $29 30h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $29 43h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 59¢ $23 44h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 59¢ $9 44h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $32 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $4 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $28 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $36 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $35 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $9 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $23 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $32 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 69¢ $32 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 67¢ $31 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 6d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 76¢ $34 6d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 76¢ $34 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $34 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $34 6d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $31 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.19 · official $0.00 (match) · 313 history records