Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:11:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8C 0x8c85…1b78 other 188 markets active 1h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,273 (+0%) realized +$1,272 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate20%38W / 149L
Whale WR6%big bets
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$1,428per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$156now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$28
14 days−$130
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$217
politics 36% −$70
sports 10% +$1,391
economics 3% −$8
culture 2% −$7
world 1% +$138
crypto 1% +$3
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 58 +3.0% -6.8% 9% 9% -9.5%
≤90d 114 +1.7% -8.0% 7% 5% -9.1%
all 187 +4.6% -5.4% 20% 14% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 14% -9.1%
10% -14.4% 14% -17.8%
15% -22.7% 11% -25.7%
20% -30.3% 7% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 6% (≥$1,991) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$8 · ×7.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.04 per $1 lost it wins $2.04
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$156
Realized+$1,272
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses38 / 149
Whale WR (big bets)6%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)187 / 188
History coverage159d
Avg bet$1,428
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 187 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $155 $156 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $2,460 −$4 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $1,420 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $2,167 −$3 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1,592 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $656 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,738 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $2,711 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $3,380 −$4 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $3,164 −$4 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $1,511 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $816 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $3,841 −$5 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $1,604 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,354 −$2 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $3,193 −$4 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $1,680 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,504 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $2,760 −$4 -0%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 07 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $2,547 −$4 -0%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 06 $57 +$73 +129%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $2,666 −$3 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $614 −$1 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 04 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,299 −$4 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $1,036 −$1 -0%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,308 −$4 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $4,633 −$5 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $758 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $1,340 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $1,583 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $4,371 −$4 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $2,391 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $1,393 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $679 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $627 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $3,416 −$4 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 29 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $3,131 −$3 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $4,134 −$4 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $592 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $2,348 −$4 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $614 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $205 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,031 −$2 -0%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 May 25 $66 +$64 +97%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $861 −$1 -0%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $86 +$39 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $772 50m
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $774 3h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $743 4h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $744 6h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $668 25h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $669 27h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $793 28h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $794 31h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $655 2d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $656 2d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $536 2d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $537 2d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $451 2d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $451 3d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $648 4d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $649 5d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $805 5d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $806 5d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $812 5d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $813 6d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $675 6d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $676 6d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $815 6d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $816 7d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $723 7d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $724 7d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $740 7d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $741 7d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $520 7d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $521 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $156.23 · official $156.23 (match) · 747 history records