Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:30:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8C 0x8c8b…7a07 sports 295 markets active 2h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,052 (+9%) realized +$1,037 · open +$15
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate61%179W / 114L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day11.9pace
Fees−$169est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$97
7 days+$226
14 days+$319
30 days+$731
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$909
other 2% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +7.2% -3.0% 60% 50% +1.7%
≤30d 214 +6.5% -3.6% 60% 57% -2.7%
≤90d 293 +7.0% -3.2% 61% 59% -2.6%
all 293 +7.0% -3.2% 61% 59% -2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.2% 59% -2.6%
10% -12.5% 56% -11.9%
15% -20.9% 49% -20.4%
20% -28.7% 37% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$32 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized+$1,037
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses179 / 114
Est. fees paid−$169
Open positions2
Markets (closed)293 / 295
History coverage65d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day11.9
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 293 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs T1 Academy 60¢ 74¢ $60 $74 +$14 (+24%)
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage NRG Academy 55¢ 61¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 86 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag Jun 18 $50 +$59 +119%
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Sta Jun 17 $62 −$62 -99%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $37 +$42 +114%
Rainbow Six Siege: Soul's Heart Esport vs Daystar (BO1) - Asia Pacific Jun 17 $12 −$12 -98%
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Twisted Minds (BO1) - Europe MENA Lea Jun 16 $22 +$25 +114%
Rainbow Six Siege: Falcons Esport vs G2 Esports (BO1) - Europe MENA Le Jun 16 $21 −$21 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $102 +$45 +44%
Rainbow Six Siege: Rival Esports vs Man eSports LFO (BO1) - Asia Pacif Jun 16 $25 +$20 +82%
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Jun 15 $72 −$72 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $45 +$25 +57%
Rainbow Six Siege: Man eSports LFO vs Barbie Boys (BO1) - Asia Pacific Jun 15 $38 −$38 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$20 +97%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs G-Time (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 14 $36 +$2 +7%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $16 +$14 +86%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $26 +$23 +88%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$11 +54%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$27 +134%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 13 $44 +$26 +58%
Rainbow Six Siege: Black Dragons e-Sports vs Fluxo W7M (BO1) - South A Jun 13 $93 +$22 +23%
Rainbow Six Siege: INTZ vs Team Liquid (BO1) - South America League St Jun 13 $254 +$2 +1%
Game Handicap: KZ (-1.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+1.5) Jun 13 $32 +$38 +118%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $60 +$40 +67%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $23 −$22 -99%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $55 −$54 -99%
Game Handicap: 4AM (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $63 +$37 +59%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $20 +$30 +152%
Rainbow Six Siege: Cloud9 vs 100 Thieves (BO1) - North America League Jun 12 $68 +$20 +29%
Rainbow Six Siege: Kingzone vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - CN League Stag Jun 12 $39 −$38 -98%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: Dplus vs CAG Osaka (BO1) - Asia Pacific League APAC Jun 12 $5 $0 +10%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $77 +$8 +10%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 12 $22 −$22 -98%
Set Handicap: Estevez (-1.5) vs Cigarran (+1.5) Jun 11 $21 +$34 +166%
Rainbow Six Siege: Five Fears vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North Ameri Jun 11 $6 −$3 -43%
Rainbow Six Siege: Spacestation Gaming vs For Fun Esports (BO1) - Nort Jun 11 $54 −$26 -48%
Rainbow Six Siege: M80 vs 100 Thieves (BO1) - North America League Sta Jun 11 $105 +$38 +36%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $48 −$3 -7%
Valorant: Oasis Gaming vs BOOM Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $5 −$2 -46%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $58 +$42 +73%
Valorant: Oasis Gaming vs BOOM Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $40 −$15 -38%
Valorant: Looking For Home vs TrinitY - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $19 −$18 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $18 −$18 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $40 +$60 +152%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $74 −$73 -99%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $101 −$101 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Masked Regime - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $29 +$29 +100%
Rainbow Six Siege: Wildcard Gaming vs 100 Thieves (BO1) - North Americ Jun 10 $66 −$65 -99%
Rainbow Six Siege: Shifters vs Team Secret (BO1) - Europe MENA League Jun 09 $50 +$50 +101%
Map Handicap: GE (-1.5) vs FULL SENSE (+1.5) Jun 09 $13 +$5 +40%
Rainbow Six Siege: Falcons Esport vs Twisted Minds (BO1) - Europe MENA Jun 09 $35 −$25 -71%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 60¢ $61 1h
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Sta BUY Pigeons 58¢ $36 11h
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 BUY NRG Academy 55¢ $2 15h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner BUY INOX Division 46¢ $37 18h
Rainbow Six Siege: Soul's Heart Esport vs Daystar (BO1) - Asia Pacific BUY Souls Heart Esport 51¢ $3 20h
Rainbow Six Siege: Soul's Heart Esport vs Daystar (BO1) - Asia Pacific BUY Souls Heart Esport 49¢ $9 20h
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Sta BUY Pigeons 58¢ $15 20h
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Twisted Minds (BO1) - Europe MENA Lea SELL Virtus.pro 100¢ $47 36h
Rainbow Six Siege: Falcons Esport vs G2 Esports (BO1) - Europe MENA Le BUY Falcons Esport 46¢ $5 37h
Rainbow Six Siege: Falcons Esport vs G2 Esports (BO1) - Europe MENA Le BUY Falcons Esport 47¢ $12 37h
Rainbow Six Siege: Falcons Esport vs G2 Esports (BO1) - Europe MENA Le BUY Falcons Esport 46¢ $5 37h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch SELL Nuclear TigeRES 78¢ $146 42h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 58¢ $29 43h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 51¢ $20 44h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 51¢ $1 44h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 51¢ $52 45h
Rainbow Six Siege: Rival Esports vs Man eSports LFO (BO1) - Asia Pacif SELL Man eSports LFO 100¢ $45 46h
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Twisted Minds (BO1) - Europe MENA Lea BUY Virtus.pro 47¢ $12 46h
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Twisted Minds (BO1) - Europe MENA Lea BUY Virtus.pro 44¢ $0 46h
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Twisted Minds (BO1) - Europe MENA Lea BUY Virtus.pro 44¢ $2 46h
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Twisted Minds (BO1) - Europe MENA Lea BUY Virtus.pro 44¢ $2 46h
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Twisted Minds (BO1) - Europe MENA Lea BUY Virtus.pro 46¢ $5 46h
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Sta BUY Pigeons 56¢ $11 46h
Rainbow Six Siege: Rival Esports vs Man eSports LFO (BO1) - Asia Pacif BUY Man eSports LFO 54¢ $8 2d
Rainbow Six Siege: Rival Esports vs Man eSports LFO (BO1) - Asia Pacif BUY Man eSports LFO 54¢ $16 2d
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: BUY FlyQuest 55¢ $9 2d
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: BUY FlyQuest 55¢ $28 2d
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: BUY FlyQuest 55¢ $28 2d
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: BUY FlyQuest 55¢ $2 2d
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: BUY FlyQuest 55¢ $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.19 · official $76.19 (match) · 805 history records