Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:14:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8C 0x8c8e…5610 crypto 912 markets active 1h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$804 (-10%) realized −$875 · open +$71
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate30%270W / 639L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day33.4pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$354now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$104
7 days−$303
14 days−$611
30 days−$355
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$144
sports 23% −$255
crypto 18% −$183
politics 17% −$238
world 3% −$227
weather 0% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -27.6% -34.5% 27% 23% -21.1%
≤30d 225 -7.5% -16.3% 27% 23% -16.7%
≤90d 909 -17.7% -25.5% 30% 25% -23.7%
all 909 -17.7% -25.5% 30% 25% -23.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.5% 25% -23.7%
10% ← realistic here -32.7% 21% -31.0%
15% -39.2% 18% -37.7%
20% -45.1% 16% -43.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$354
Realized−$875
Unrealized+$71
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses270 / 639
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions3
Markets (closed)909 / 912
History coverage65d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day33.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 909 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 48¢ 62¢ $275 $352 +$77 (+28%)
Will Marisol Pérez Tello win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-77%)
Will César Acuña win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 106 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 $0 -2%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $23 −$13 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $79 −$34 -43%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $125 −$10 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $100 −$25 -25%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$5 -5%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $64 −$10 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +13%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -89%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $17 +$30 +172%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $46 −$29 -63%
Counter-Strike: The Last Resort vs Dripmen - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $47 +$4 +10%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 +$3 +262%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -68%
Counter-Strike: STATE vs MASONIC (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Playoffs Jun 13 $6 +$4 +64%
Counter-Strike: STATE vs MASONIC - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $68 +$10 +15%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $104 −$36 -34%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $2 $0 +4%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $2 $0 +11%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $26 −$16 -63%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Overtake - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Overtake (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoffs Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $55 +$17 +30%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +66%
Paraguay leading at halftime? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Gior Dota Team (BO3) - The International South Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +44%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 12 $83 −$2 -2%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -54%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 12 $1,224 −$159 -13%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $9 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 20¢ $10 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 45¢ $22 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $22 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 2h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $229 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 3h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 3h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $3 3h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $68 3h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 40¢ $25 3h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 3h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $35 3h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $33 4h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 4h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 36¢ $9 4h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $5 4h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 4h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 4h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 4h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $29 12h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $29 13h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $49 18h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $48 18h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $49 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $353.70 · official $353.70 (match) · 2776 history records