Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T13:43:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
8C 0x8c90…0c5a other 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 214d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate82%23W / 5L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$588per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$193now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 75% −$14
crypto 15% −$1
other 10% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 8 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 28 +0.1% -9.4% 82% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

214d coverage
Net worth$193
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses23 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)28 / 31
History coverage214d
Avg bet$588
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $116 $116 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 22 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 24? Jun 22 $28 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? Jun 22 $142 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? May 23 $85 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? May 23 $95 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 7? Apr 15 $65 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? Apr 15 $65 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 8? Apr 15 $66 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in February? Mar 07 $52 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 07 $68 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Mar 07 $75 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026? Feb 20 $32 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Feb 20 $32 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026? Feb 20 $45 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026? Feb 20 $86 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Feb 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026? Feb 07 $23 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026? Feb 07 $23 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 740+ tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026? Feb 07 $26 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026? Feb 07 $54 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in January? Feb 07 $55 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Jan 10 $194 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025? Dec 12 $194 $0 +0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 21 $2,743 −$3 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 21 $5,494 −$6 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 20 $5,505 −$6 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Nov 20 $1,756 −$2 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Nov 20 $1,000 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $45 1h
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $116 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 1h
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $28 30d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $142 30d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $85 68d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $95 68d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 8? BUY No 100¢ $66 107d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 7? BUY No 100¢ $65 107d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $65 107d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $68 122d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $75 122d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in February? BUY No 100¢ $52 122d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $86 135d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 135d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 BUY No 100¢ $32 135d
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $45 135d
Will Solana dip to $30 in January? BUY No 100¢ $55 163d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $14 163d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 163d
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 163d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 163d
Will Elon Musk post 740+ tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $26 163d
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $194 192d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $194 213d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $2,740 213d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $2,743 213d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $2,743 213d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $2,746 213d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $192.90 · official $192.90 (match) · 65 history records