Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:09:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8c90…774b other 102 markets active 2h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$29 (-0%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate9%9W / 92L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$235per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$13
politics 36% −$10
crypto 3% $0
sports 3% −$7
tech 2% −$1
world 2% −$1
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 18 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 91 -0.8% -10.2% 5% 2% -9.5%
all 101 -2.4% -11.7% 9% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 3% -9.6%
10% -20.1% 3% -18.3%
15% -27.8% 2% -26.2%
20% -34.9% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×6.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses9 / 92
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)101 / 102
History coverage115d
Avg bet$235
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $494 −$1 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $20 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $64 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $242 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $37 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $29 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $25 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 02 $199 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $394 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 30 $260 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $275 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $236 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $193 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $396 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $196 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $628 −$1 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $195 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $383 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $882 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $212 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $230 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $224 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $386 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $195 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $174 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $603 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $397 $0 -0%
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 15 $221 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $194 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 14 $166 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $624 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? May 13 $243 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $218 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $222 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $232 $0 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election May 10 $196 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $208 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 22 $203 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $177 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $194 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $187 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $438 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $165 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $1,056 −$1 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $233 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $579 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $381 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $236 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 17 $229 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $354 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $26 2h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $27 15h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $27 17h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $20 17h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $20 6d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $27 9d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $27 9d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $37 12d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $37 14d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $40 15d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 16d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $37 16d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $37 16d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $29 16d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $29 17d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $25 17d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $25 17d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $25 17d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $25 18d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $23 19d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $23 20d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $27 20d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $27 21d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $34 21d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $34 21d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $236 21d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $236 23d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $204 23d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $204 23d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $193 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.99 · official $25.99 (match) · 327 history records