Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:51:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8c95…3406 politics 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 236d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$42 (-1%) realized −$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%2W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$368now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$4
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 60% −$11
other 31% −$38
sports 9% $0
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-25.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -6.3% -15.3% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 30 -9.2% -17.9% 3% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 50 -14.5% -22.6% 4% 0% -10.0%
all 52 -17.1% -25.0% 4% 0% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.0% 0% -10.3%
10% -32.1% 0% -18.9%
15% -38.7% 0% -26.8%
20% -44.7% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$368
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses2 / 50
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage236d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $208 $208 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $169 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $189 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $398 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $477 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $3 −$1 -19%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $189 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $2 $0 -24%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $162 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $4 $0 -12%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $170 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $1 $0 -19%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $161 −$1 -1%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -37%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $212 −$1 -1%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $240 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $2 $0 -21%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $4 −$1 -19%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $339 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $1 $0 -19%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $190 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $1 $0 -22%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $169 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $1 −$1 -53%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $160 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $175 −$1 -1%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $220 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $160 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 29 $160 $0 +0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $1 $0 -19%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $9 −$1 -7%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $1 $0 -29%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $1 −$1 -53%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $1 $0 -29%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $2 $0 -17%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $1 −$1 -53%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $36 −$2 -5%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $1 −$1 -53%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $2 $0 -14%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $1 −$1 -38%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $2 $0 -18%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $4 −$1 -13%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $3 $0 -5%
Will Newcastle be relegated from the English Premier League after the Apr 23 $160 $0 +0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 22 $240 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $219 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $230 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $219 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 02 $2 $0 -17%
Will Phil Mickelson win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 02 $309 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $208 1h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $168 3h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $169 5h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $188 8h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 12h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $199 22h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 24h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $228 27h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 28h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $229 32h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 33h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $189 35h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 2d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $160 13d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 19d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 20d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 20d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 20d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 21d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 21d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 21d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 21d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 21d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 21d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 21d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 21d
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $160 22d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $210 22d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $210 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $367.79 · official $367.80 (match) · 172 history records