Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:42:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8c96…e71f crypto 682 markets active 2h ago coverage 92d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 91d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,275 (-5%) realized −$3,347 · open +$72
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate33%270W / 552L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day36.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$342now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 92d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$5,188
other 2% −$64
sports 0% +$207
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-33.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 262 -63.9% -67.3% 15% 14% -72.1%
≤30d 335 -50.4% -55.1% 18% 17% -64.2%
≤90d 714 -29.7% -36.4% 31% 30% -28.6%
all 822 -26.2% -33.2% 33% 31% -25.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.2% 31% -25.9%
10% ← realistic here -39.6% 29% -33.0%
15% -45.5% 26% -39.4%
20% -50.8% 21% -45.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$50 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$342
Realized−$3,347
Unrealized+$72
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses270 / 552
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)822 / 682
History coverage92d ⚠
Avg bet$87
Trades / day36.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 822 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $100 $138 +$38 (+38%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 21¢ $9 $42 +$33 (+378%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $49 $42 −$7 (-15%)
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 495 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 1AM ET Jun 19 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 19 $66 −$66 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 9, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 10AM ET Jun 19 $130 −$124 -95%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 1AM ET Jun 19 $120 −$120 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 19 $105 −$105 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 18, 9PM ET Jun 19 $100 −$89 -90%
Solana Up or Down - February 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 14, 5AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 19 $35 −$35 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 15, 2AM ET Jun 19 $13 +$38 +298%
Solana Up or Down - February 12, 10PM ET Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 13, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 19 $39 −$39 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 6, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-14? Jun 19 $54 −$54 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 17, 10AM ET Jun 19 $52 −$52 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 19, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 19 $59 −$59 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 13, 5AM ET Jun 19 $41 −$41 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 13, 11PM ET Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 7, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 12, 4AM ET Jun 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 19 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 19 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 7, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 7AM ET Jun 19 $150 −$150 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 21, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 19 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 10PM ET Jun 19 $9 +$32 +354%
Solana Up or Down - February 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 7, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 15, 2AM ET Jun 19 $30 +$58 +196%
Solana Up or Down - January 7, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 19 $6 +$4 +66%
Solana Up or Down - January 8, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 19 $34 −$31 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 9PM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 6, 3AM ET Jun 19 $82 −$82 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 7, 10PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$8 -80%
Solana Up or Down - March 17, 10PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 19 $49 −$49 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 8, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 19 $39 −$39 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 8, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 3AM ET Jun 19 $51 −$27 -54%
Solana Up or Down - February 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 3h
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $12 3h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $62 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $21 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $21 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $9 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $20 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $12 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $18 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $19 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $33 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $11 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $19 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $16 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $64 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $39 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $37 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $342.19 · official $342.25 (match) · 3500 history records