Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:56:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8c97…5c66 sports 468 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (73 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,096 (+8%) realized +$1,100 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate55%243W / 202L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day72.6pace
Fees−$175est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$340now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,141
7 days+$1,059
14 days+$1,059
30 days+$1,059
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$1,047
other 6% −$12
crypto 0% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (73 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 445 +5.8% -4.3% 55% 54% -2.6%
≤30d 445 +5.8% -4.3% 55% 54% -2.6%
≤90d 445 +5.8% -4.3% 55% 54% -2.6%
all 445 +5.8% -4.3% 55% 54% -2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover72.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.3% 54% -2.6%
10% ← realistic here -13.4% 53% -12.0%
15% -21.8% 50% -20.5%
20% -29.5% 37% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$23 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$340
Realized+$1,100
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses243 / 202
Est. fees paid−$175
Open positions21
Markets (closed)445 / 468
History coverage7d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day72.6
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 445 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Monastir: Daniil Sarksian vs Viktor Frydrych Viktor Frydrych 32¢ 40¢ $30 $38 +$8 (+27%)
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jiri Lehecka 61¢ 66¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+9%)
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Emma Navarro 61¢ 66¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+7%)
Set Handicap: Vekic (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5) Eala 62¢ 64¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jenson Brooksby 61¢ 60¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Donna Vekic 55¢ 55¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Set Handicap: Damm (-1.5) vs Brooksby (+1.5) Brooksby 65¢ 63¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 60¢ 56¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-8%)
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Ksenia Zaytseva vs Nina Radovanovic Ksenia Zaytseva 71¢ 62¢ $18 $16 −$2 (-12%)
Set Handicap: Svitolina (-1.5) vs Kalinskaya (+1.5) Svitolina 44¢ 44¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Nottingham Open (Doubles): Kozyreva/Shymanovich vs Pridankina/Tang Pridankina/Tang 52¢ 52¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
ITF Blois: Yaroslava Bartashevich vs Sofya Lansere Sofya Lansere 67¢ 40¢ $20 $12 −$8 (-40%)
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Mia Horvit vs Ena Ilic Mia Horvit 75¢ 75¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+0%)
Alex de Minaur vs. Gabriel Diallo: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 65¢ 66¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+2%)
ITF Tauste: Laia Petretic vs Chelsea Fontenel Laia Petretic 50¢ 52¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+5%)
Etcheverry vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 21.5 Over 54¢ 52¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Set Handicap: Ruggeri (-1.5) vs Bertea (+1.5) Bertea 60¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$1 (-17%)
Anastasia Kulikova vs. Mai Hontama: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 67¢ 72¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Gibson vs. Zheng: Match O/U 21.5 Over 52¢ 53¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
ITF Blois: Alevtina Ibragimova vs Margaux Rouvroy Margaux Rouvroy 41¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Set Handicap: Siniakova (-1.5) vs Masarova (+1.5) Masarova 60¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 71 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set Handicap: Samuel (-1.5) vs Fery (+1.5) Jun 16 $12 +$4 +36%
Set Handicap: Fery (-1.5) vs Samuel (+1.5) Jun 16 $2 +$3 +124%
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa Jun 16 $30 +$20 +67%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 16 $70 +$79 +111%
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon Jun 16 $61 +$75 +124%
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Juan Martin Jun 16 $30 +$10 +32%
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Francesca Pace Jun 16 $30 +$11 +36%
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 16 $53 −$18 -34%
Set Handicap: Fucsovics (-1.5) vs Nakashima (+1.5) Jun 16 $9 +$3 +36%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Figueira Da Foz: Matilde Jorge vs Jil Teichmann Jun 16 $30 +$30 +97%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $3 +$2 +65%
Set 1 Winner: Erel vs Tabata Jun 16 $3 +$2 +48%
Parma: Luca Wiedenmann vs Ryan Seggerman Jun 16 $13 +$6 +50%
Khachanov vs. Quinn: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 16 $30 +$25 +83%
Khachanov vs. Quinn: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 16 $56 −$4 -6%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $30 +$33 +109%
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Jun 16 $31 +$43 +140%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets Jun 16 $1 $0 +42%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $30 +$33 +109%
Set 1 Winner: Griekspoor vs Shimabukuro Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Amandine Hesse vs. Jasmijn Gimbrere: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $3 +$2 +48%
Set Handicap: Hesse (-1.5) vs Gimbrere (+1.5) Jun 16 $13 +$17 +129%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 16 $61 −$60 -99%
Dublin: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
ITF Tokyo: Ikumi Yamazaki vs Hikaru Sato Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Set Handicap: Lehecka (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5) Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
ITF Maanshan: Pawit Sornlaksup vs Thanapet Chanta Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Mannarino vs Minaur Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 3 Winner Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
ITF Maanshan: Hanyi Liu vs Kokoro Isomura Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
ITF Casablanca: Emma Lene vs Aran Teixido Garcia Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
ITF Maanshan: Chase Ferguson vs Taiyo Yamanaka Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Andres Santamarta Jun 16 $101 +$36 +36%
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Henri Squire Jun 16 $30 +$18 +60%
Set 1 Winner: Buse vs Giron Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Hesse vs Gimbrere Jun 16 $3 +$2 +55%
Set 1 Winner: Khachanov vs Quinn Jun 16 $30 +$15 +50%
ITF Klosters: Nicole Gadient vs Paula Cembranos Jun 16 $31 +$51 +165%
ITF Blois: Anouck Vrancken Peeters vs Lucie Nguyen Tan Jun 16 $16 −$16 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Keys vs Wang Jun 16 $30 +$14 +48%
Matilde Jorge vs. Jil Teichmann: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
ITF Tauste: Yushan Shao vs Marine Szostak Jun 16 $12 +$5 +42%
Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Bellucci (+1.5) Jun 16 $11 −$11 -98%
ITF Milano: Luca Parenti vs Lorenzo Berto Jun 16 $19 −$19 -99%
ITF Maanshan: Evan Zhu vs Hoyoung Roh Jun 16 $30 +$12 +40%
Grass Court Championships (Doubles): Danilina/Krunic vs Muhammad/Stoll Jun 16 $3 −$3 -99%
ITF Milano: Nicola Rispoli vs Gian Marco Ortenzi Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm BUY Jenson Brooksby 61¢ $30 3m
ITF Blois: Yaroslava Bartashevich vs Sofya Lansere BUY Sofya Lansere 67¢ $20 5m
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Mia Horvit vs Ena Ilic BUY Mia Horvit 75¢ $11 13m
Set Handicap: Svitolina (-1.5) vs Kalinskaya (+1.5) BUY Svitolina 44¢ $16 16m
Set Handicap: Damm (-1.5) vs Brooksby (+1.5) BUY Brooksby 65¢ $30 20m
ITF Milano: Fausto Tabacco vs Kirill Kivattsev BUY Fausto Tabacco 31¢ $0 20m
Set Handicap: Ruggeri (-1.5) vs Bertea (+1.5) BUY Bertea 60¢ $3 27m
Anastasia Kulikova vs. Mai Hontama: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 67¢ $1 31m
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 66¢ $30 1h
Set Handicap: Siniakova (-1.5) vs Masarova (+1.5) BUY Masarova 60¢ $2 1h
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon BUY Conor Gannon 45¢ $30 1h
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon BUY Conor Gannon 43¢ $31 1h
Set Handicap: Fery (-1.5) vs Samuel (+1.5) BUY Fery 44¢ $2 1h
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa BUY Mia Ristic 59¢ $30 2h
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Francesca Pace BUY Jazmin Ortenzi 73¢ $30 2h
ITF Blois: Alevtina Ibragimova vs Margaux Rouvroy BUY Margaux Rouvroy 41¢ $2 2h
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn BUY Karen Khachanov 20¢ $31 2h
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets BUY Katie Volynets 70¢ $1 2h
Set 1 Winner: Griekspoor vs Shimabukuro BUY Griekspoor 35¢ $31 2h
ITF Monastir: Daniil Sarksian vs Viktor Frydrych BUY Viktor Frydrych 32¢ $31 2h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Kimberly Birrell 73¢ $30 2h
Set 1 Winner: Buse vs Giron BUY Buse 36¢ $2 2h
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg BUY Genaro Alberto Olivieri 45¢ $24 3h
Set 1 Winner: Erel vs Tabata BUY Erel 67¢ $3 3h
Figueira Da Foz: Matilde Jorge vs Jil Teichmann BUY Jil Teichmann 50¢ $30 3h
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg BUY Genaro Alberto Olivieri 48¢ $19 3h
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg BUY Genaro Alberto Olivieri 47¢ $28 3h
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Dane Sweeny 30¢ $31 3h
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik BUY Mattia Bellucci 47¢ $30 3h
ITF Blois: Anouck Vrancken Peeters vs Lucie Nguyen Tan BUY Anouck Vrancken Peeters 26¢ $16 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $340.28 · official $338.96 (match) · 870 history records