Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:33:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8c9a…f127 crypto 497 markets active 2h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$37 (-0%) realized −$37 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate97%483W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$32
14 days−$118
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$60
tech 1% −$72
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -0.0% -9.5% 96% 0% -8.2%
≤30d 299 +0.3% -9.3% 97% 2% -9.9%
≤90d 497 -0.2% -9.7% 97% 2% -10.2%
all 497 -0.2% -9.7% 97% 2% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 2% -10.2%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.8%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.7%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$35 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses483 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)497 / 497
History coverage66d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 497 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 26 $64 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 26 $63 +$2 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 26 $24 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 26 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 26 $64 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 26 $12 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 25 $25 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 25 $25 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 25 $24 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 25 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 25 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 25 $61 +$2 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 25 $22 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 24 $21 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 24 $22 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 24 $22 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 24 $62 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 24 $22 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 24 $60 +$3 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 24 $21 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 24 $62 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 24 $11 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 24 $61 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 24 $62 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 23 $62 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 23 $22 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 23 $61 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 23 $62 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 23 $62 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 23 $21 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 23 $22 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 23 $22 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 23 $62 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 23 $22 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 23 $11 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 23 $59 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 23 $47 +$3 +6%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $20 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 22 $56 +$4 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 22 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 22 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 22 $59 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 22 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 21 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 21 $59 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 20 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 20 $59 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $12 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $52 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $12 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $12 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $13 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $12 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $12 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $12 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $13 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $51 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $11 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $11 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $11 29h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $11 29h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $11 30h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $11 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $52 35h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $11 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 35h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $11 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $51 36h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $11 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1210 history records