Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T14:59:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8C 0x8c9e…a4fd crypto 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 557d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$156 (-4%) realized −$156 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate74%32W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 34% −$169
other 29% −$1
crypto 17% +$14
politics 10% $0
economics 10% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +2.4% -7.4% 100% 0% -7.4%
≤30d 5 +3.4% -6.4% 100% 0% -6.3%
≤90d 9 +2.9% -6.9% 100% 0% -6.7%
all 43 -0.7% -10.1% 74% 2% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 2% -13.6%
10% -18.7% 0% -21.8%
15% -26.6% 0% -29.4%
20% -33.8% 0% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$16 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

557d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$156
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses32 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage557d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 94¢ 94¢ $31 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 15-21? Jun 22 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 8-14? Jun 15 $38 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $36 +$2 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 02 $17 +$1 +5%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? Jun 02 $18 $0 +2%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April? May 16 $17 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? May 16 $17 $0 +3%
Will Solana reach $110 in March? Apr 25 $15 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Apr 25 $18 $0 +2%
Will Solana dip to $60 in February? Mar 27 $16 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in February? Mar 27 $17 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $150 in January? Feb 26 $14 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Feb 26 $18 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 26 $15 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 26 $17 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? Nov 15 $13 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? Nov 15 $23 +$1 +3%
Rangers vs. Blue Jackets Nov 15 $168 −$168 -100%
Will Solana dip to $175 in September? Oct 26 $10 $0 +4%
Will Solana dip to $170 in September? Oct 26 $25 +$1 +2%
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? Sep 27 $35 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4200 in July? Aug 28 $9 +$1 +11%
Will Ethereum reach $4500 in July? Aug 28 $24 +$1 +3%
Will Solana reach $180 in June? Jul 24 $33 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in May? Jun 28 $15 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $210 in May? Jun 28 $17 +$1 +5%
Will Solana reach $210 in April? May 27 $12 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? May 27 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? Apr 23 $7 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31? Apr 23 $24 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 19 $7 $0 -6%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 19 $8 $0 +2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 09 $8 $0 +1%
Will Pump.fun launch a token in 2024? Jan 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bologna win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 22 $15 $0 -0%
Will AC Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 18 $318 $0 -0%
Wolverhampton Wanderers win the Premier League? Dec 18 $340 $0 -0%
Southampton wins the Premier League? Dec 18 $344 $0 -0%
Will the Dolphins win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 18 $338 $0 -0%
Will the Saints win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 18 $328 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after December 2024 meeting? Dec 18 $344 $0 -0%
Will the 49ers win the NFC Championship? Dec 18 $345 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Dec 18 $345 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 94¢ $31 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 15-21? BUY No 97¢ $30 9d
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 8-14? BUY No 98¢ $38 14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? BUY No 94¢ $36 21d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? BUY No 98¢ $18 33d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? BUY No 95¢ $17 33d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April? BUY No 97¢ $17 64d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? BUY No 97¢ $17 64d
Will Solana reach $110 in March? BUY No 99¢ $15 93d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? BUY No 98¢ $18 93d
Will Solana dip to $60 in February? BUY No 99¢ $16 122d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in February? BUY No 99¢ $17 122d
Will Solana reach $150 in January? BUY No 98¢ $14 153d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? BUY No 98¢ $18 153d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 99¢ $17 183d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 99¢ $15 183d
Rangers vs. Blue Jackets BUY Blue Jackets 49¢ $168 225d
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? BUY No 97¢ $13 245d
Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? BUY No 97¢ $23 245d
Will Solana dip to $170 in September? BUY No 98¢ $25 274d
Will Solana dip to $175 in September? BUY No 96¢ $10 274d
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? BUY No 99¢ $35 304d
Will Ethereum reach $4200 in July? BUY No 90¢ $9 339d
Will Ethereum reach $4500 in July? BUY No 97¢ $24 339d
Will Solana reach $180 in June? BUY No 100¢ $33 365d
Will Solana reach $250 in May? BUY No 99¢ $15 397d
Will Solana reach $210 in May? BUY No 95¢ $17 397d
Will Solana reach $210 in April? BUY No 99¢ $12 431d
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? BUY No 97¢ $19 431d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $16 466d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.42 · official $30.42 (match) · 91 history records