Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:35:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
8C 0x8ca0…79df other 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$21 (+18%) realized +$23 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +8.1% -2.2% 50% 50% -13.8%
≤30d 2 +8.1% -2.2% 50% 50% -13.8%
≤90d 2 +8.1% -2.2% 50% 50% -13.8%
all 2 +8.1% -2.2% 50% 50% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.2% 50% -13.8%
10% -11.6% 50% -22.0%
15% -20.1% 50% -29.6%
20% -27.9% 50% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$25 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$23
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)2 / 3
History coverage1d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Yes 46¢ 44¢ $29 $27 −$2 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $54 −$25 -46%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $33 +$21 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $29 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 27¢ $0 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 27¢ $29 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $54 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $33 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.40 · official $27.40 (match) · 6 history records