Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:19:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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8C 0x8ca3…2d23 sports 252 markets active 1h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$7,388 (-70%) realized −$7,302 · open −$86
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%65W / 164L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$73est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$885now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,827
7 days−$3,859
14 days−$4,409
30 days−$4,498
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$5,303
other 33% −$2,300
world 0% −$37
crypto 0% +$19
weather 0% −$5
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +10.7% +0.2% 22% 22% -97.2%
≤30d 31 +16.7% +5.6% 23% 23% -97.1%
≤90d 50 +1.1% -8.5% 24% 24% -95.5%
all 229 +2.2% -7.5% 28% 28% -82.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 28% -82.8%
10% -16.4% 28% -84.5%
15% -24.4% 28% -86.0%
20% -31.8% 28% -87.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -95% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -81% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +14% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$53 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$885
Realized−$7,302
Unrealized−$86
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses65 / 164
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$73
Open positions15
Markets (closed)229 / 252
History coverage162d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 229 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $800 $733 −$67 (-8%)
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 Over 9¢ 8¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 38¢ 32¢ $19 $16 −$3 (-14%)
Spread: Panama (-1.5) Panama 1¢ 1¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 Over 5¢ 4¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-30%)
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? Yes 13¢ 5¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-61%)
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? Yes 3¢ 7¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+148%)
Metamask FDV above $4B one day after launch? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 35¢ 18¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-47%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-30%)
Will Rabby launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-88%)
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 155 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $978 −$952 -97%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $100 −$97 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $906 −$881 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $918 −$892 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 25 $40 −$39 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$49 +474%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $115 −$112 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Barcelona vs. Valencia Jun 22 $30 −$20 -67%
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $18 −$18 -97%
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) Jun 22 $410 −$399 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1 +$1 +140%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $1 +$7 +712%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $483 −$483 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $25 −$24 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 +$31 +596%
Valencia vs. Barcelona Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $557 −$546 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? Jun 13 $4 +$10 +276%
Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $80 −$78 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 07 $15 −$14 -97%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Niger win on 2026-06-08? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Jun 07 $1 +$6 +594%
Nexus FDV above $500M one day after launch? May 21 $14 +$81 +576%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $68 −$67 -98%
Will Solana reach $170 in May? May 12 $3 −$2 -97%
Will Solana reach $130 in May? May 11 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 27? May 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on April 28? May 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-07? May 10 $4 +$3 +76%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 27 $37 −$36 -98%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 207.5 Apr 27 $1 +$1 +90%
Hellas Verona FC vs. US Lecce: O/U 2.5 Apr 25 $11 −$11 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 25? Apr 25 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 25? Apr 24 $1 −$1 -95%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch? Apr 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Pacers vs. Hornets Apr 03 $14 −$14 -97%
Mavericks vs. Bucks: O/U 219.5 Apr 03 $3 +$3 +92%
Mavericks vs. Bucks: O/U 220.5 Apr 03 $3 +$3 +104%
Clippers vs. Bucks Mar 29 $494 −$494 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY 2¢ $27 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? AND Will BUY 2¢ $9 1h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY 1¢ $1 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? AND BUY 2¢ $10 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 6¢ $308 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 6¢ $514 1h
Spread: Panama (-1.5) BUY Panama 1¢ $16 1h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 5¢ $10 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? AND W BUY 1¢ $1 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? AND W BUY 1¢ $1 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? AND W BUY 1¢ $1 2h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 9¢ $103 2h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 7¢ $362 12h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 12h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06 BUY 1¢ $10 12h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) AND Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? AND Will BUY 2¢ $10 12h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 12h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 12h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 12h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY 3¢ $10 12h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 12h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 12h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 1.5 BUY Over 6¢ $100 13h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 1¢ $9 13h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 1¢ $7 13h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 13h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 13h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 13h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 13h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $885.20 · official $933.73 · 458 history records