Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:54:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
8C 0x8ca6…a980 crypto 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$342 (+43%) realized +$491 · open −$149
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +153% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +120% what you keep after slip
Net edge+120%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$485now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% −$67
crypto 35% +$186
world 13% +$140
other 6% −$2
economics 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+129.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +153.1% +129.0% 43% 29% +252.4%
≤30d 7 +153.1% +129.0% 43% 29% +252.4%
≤90d 7 +153.1% +129.0% 43% 29% +252.4%
all 7 +153.1% +129.0% 43% 29% +252.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +129.0% 29% +252.4%
10% +107.1% 29% +218.7%
15% +87.1% 29% +187.9%
20% +68.8% 29% +159.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +290% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +153% · $-wt +290% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$147 vs −$10 · ×14.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10.94 per $1 lost it wins $10.94
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$485
Realized+$491
Unrealized−$149
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions10
Markets (closed)7 / 17
History coverage3d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 56¢ 57¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 59¢ 60¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $79 $79 +$0 (+0%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Under 42¢ 42¢ $49 $48 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? No 36¢ 34¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? No 43¢ 44¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Aryna Sabalenka 64¢ 19¢ $100 $30 −$70 (-70%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? Yes 17¢ 8¢ $46 $21 −$25 (-54%)
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $25 $19 −$6 (-23%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 28¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $20 +$205 +1026%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? Jun 18 $53 +$234 +443%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $484.60 · official $484.61 (match) · 24 history records