Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:34:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8C
0x8ca7…6931
crypto · 97 markets active 1h ago
3.5score
+$13 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$15 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$9
Realized+$15
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses56 / 40
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)96 / 97
Avg bet$5
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 1 History 96 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$12
14 days+$13
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Hanwha Life Esports 56¢ 48¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Down 67¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 TYLOO 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 47¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Down 67¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks Knicks 55¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $2 $0 -20%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $2 +$2 +76%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $2 $0 +22%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 11 $12 +$5 +42%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $22 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$4 +73%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $9 −$9 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $1 $0 +8%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $3 +$1 +20%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $2 −$1 -63%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 09 $1 $0 -20%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1 $0 -6%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1 $0 -6%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1 $0 -5%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $1 +$1 +76%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $5 +$1 +28%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $2 +$1 +30%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $3 −$2 -66%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $11 $0 -1%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $4 +$2 +44%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $1 $0 -8%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $1 $0 +21%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 08 $5 +$4 +72%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1 +$1 +79%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $1 +$1 +74%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 07 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 06 $1 +$3 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 06 $1 +$4 +392%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $15 +$1 +9%
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Jun 05 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 31 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 31 $3 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 31 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 27 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 27 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 27 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 27 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 27 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 27 $11 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 69% +$7
sports 23% +$4
world 7% +$2
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Hanwha Life Esports 52¢ $3 33m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Hanwha Life Esports 46¢ $2 1h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Hanwha Life Esports 65¢ $5 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 43¢ $2 4h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 56¢ $2 9h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 52¢ $2 10h
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles SELL Baltimore Orioles 83¢ $2 10h
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 67¢ $2 10h
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali SELL LOS 100¢ $17 10h
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali BUY LOS 71¢ $10 11h
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali BUY LOS 65¢ $2 11h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 84¢ $8 15h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Natus Vincere 16¢ $7 15h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 17¢ $8 15h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 83¢ $6 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 15h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 37¢ $3 17h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 37¢ $1 17h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 61¢ $5 18h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 77¢ $1 33h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 91¢ $4 33h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 70¢ $1 33h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 75¢ $2 34h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 74¢ $1 34h
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles SELL Baltimore Orioles 24¢ $1 2d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 63¢ $2 2d
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL Boston Red Sox 46¢ $1 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +12.9% +2.2% 53% 45% -0.9%
≤30d 76 +6.1% -4.0% 57% 46% -4.9%
≤90d 79 +3.9% -6.0% 56% 46% -7.8%
all 96 +2.1% -7.7% 58% 45% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 45% -6.8%
10% -16.5% 34% -15.7%
15% -24.6% 27% -23.8%
20% -32.0% 20% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.64 · official $8.64 (match) · 265 history records