Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:20:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8C 0x8ca8…1b96 crypto 202 markets active 3d ago coverage 8d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (50 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%89W / 113L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day50.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$25
14 days−$103
30 days−$103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$103
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (50 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 94 -12.2% -20.5% 43% 43% -6.7%
≤30d 202 -12.6% -20.9% 44% 44% -14.3%
≤90d 202 -12.6% -20.9% 44% 44% -14.3%
all 202 -12.6% -20.9% 44% 44% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.9% 44% -14.3%
10% ← realistic here -28.5% 43% -22.5%
15% -35.4% 41% -30.0%
20% -41.7% 40% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$8 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses89 / 113
Open positions0
Markets (closed)202 / 202
History coverage8d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day50.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 202 Trades
no open positions (104 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$8 +77%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$4 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$4 +70%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$5 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$7 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$8 +75%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$12 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $9 +$19 +203%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$8 +254%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $14 +$21 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$4 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$7 +136%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$7 +137%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$14 +69%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$20 +195%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Solana Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $11 −$10 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$2 -32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $18 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $18 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $4 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $6 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $6 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $27 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $6 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $7 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $6 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $8 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $4 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $3 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 397 history records