Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:07:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
8C 0x8cab…6777 sports 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$63 (+3%) realized +$60 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%9W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$41
sports 34% +$62
crypto 1% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +2.6% -7.2% 43% 43% -5.8%
≤30d 21 +2.6% -7.2% 43% 43% -5.8%
≤90d 21 +2.6% -7.2% 43% 43% -5.8%
all 21 +2.6% -7.2% 43% 43% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 43% -5.8%
10% -16.1% 43% -14.9%
15% -24.2% 43% -23.1%
20% -31.6% 43% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$56 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$123
Realized+$60
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses9 / 12
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 22
History coverage5d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: England (-1.5) England 59¢ 60¢ $120 $123 +$3 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $51 +$47 +91%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $36 +$33 +91%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 23 $67 +$77 +116%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $46 +$81 +174%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $41 −$14 -33%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $62 +$93 +151%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $36 −$27 -74%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $31 −$30 -97%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $46 −$45 -97%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $26 +$14 +54%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $122 −$120 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $129 −$3 -2%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $216 −$86 -40%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $178 −$175 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $101 +$78 +77%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $74 −$74 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $314 +$192 +61%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $152 +$137 +90%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 19 $26 $0 -0%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $77 −$77 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $98 2h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 59¢ $123 5h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 5h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $69 5h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 97¢ $144 5h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $26 6h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $127 6h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 51¢ $41 7h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 25¢ $28 9h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $21 10h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 35¢ $41 11h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $26 12h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 99¢ $155 12h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $36 12h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 38¢ $62 29h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) SELL Egypt 9¢ $9 29h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 33¢ $36 30h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 36¢ $31 32h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 44¢ $46 33h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $39 34h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 63¢ $26 34h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 40¢ $122 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 83¢ $126 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $129 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 34¢ $129 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 33¢ $46 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $71 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $99 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 44¢ $25 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $26 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $123.05 · official $123.05 (match) · 47 history records