Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:49:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8cac…6e9c sports 9 markets active 2d ago coverage 39d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7 (-15%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$2
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$1
other 47% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-42.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -22.6% -29.9% 33% 33% -31.7%
≤30d 8 -28.7% -35.5% 38% 38% -25.7%
≤90d 9 -36.6% -42.6% 33% 33% -29.1%
all 9 -36.6% -42.6% 33% 33% -29.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.6% 33% -29.1%
10% -48.1% 33% -35.9%
15% -53.1% 33% -42.1%
20% -57.7% 22% -47.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage39d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -95%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $5 +$7 +132%
Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $7 −$7 -95%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score in First H Jun 18 $2 −$2 -94%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $8 +$3 +38%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $5 +$5 +100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $2 −$2 -92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $4 2d
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $12 2d
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 39¢ $5 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $7 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score in First H BUY Yes 18¢ $2 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 9d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $8 10d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $11 12d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 12d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 13d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 15d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 12 history records